Uganda's People Defence Forces' (UPDF) Special Forces commandos
participate in drills near the South Sudan border. PHOTO | FILE |
AFP
By JULIUS BARIGABA
In Summary
- The peace agreement gave all foreign armies and militia 45 days to withdraw.
- Under the agreement, an Igad force from Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda was supposed to replace foreign armies.
- Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces deployed between 2,500 and 3,000 troops in South Sudan following the outbreak of war mid December 2013.
The deadline for Ugandan troops to leave South Sudan is less
than two weeks away but Kampala is yet to give the order for its forces
to start withdrawing as demanded by the peace agreement signed in
August.
The agreement, which President Salva Kiir signed on August 26 — a
week after his rival and former deputy Dr Riek Machar had appended his
signature — gave all foreign armies and militia 45 days to withdraw.
Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces deployed between 2,500 and 3,000
troops in South Sudan following the outbreak of war mid December 2013,
to fight alongside forces loyal to President Salvar Kiir.
Under the agreement, an Inter-Governmental Authority on
Development force from Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda was supposed to
replace foreign armies, but it was always difficult to have replacement
boots on the ground, Kampala argues.
“Internationally mediated security arrangements are always
fluid. We are committed to pulling out as a unilateral arrangement, but
the army never leaves a vacuum. If we withdrew now, where is the Igad
force that is going to deploy in our place? That’s why you are getting
mixed signals [on our withdrawal]” deputy government spokesman Col
Shaban Bantariza said.
'No order for withdrawal'
Earlier, UPDF spokesman Lt Col Paddy Ankunda also said that the
army leadership was aware of the impending deadline but the troops were
to stay put because no order for withdrawal had been given.
The peace deal, signed in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa ;eft
President Kiir in a weaker position — by demanding the pull-out of
UPDF, the main foreign force backing him, as well as demilitarisation of
a 25-km radius around the capital Juba and handing Riek Machar a more
central role in government.
President Kiir expressed “serious reservations” about some of
the clauses in the peace deal and how the mediation was conducted,
although it ensured that the conflict ended.
Col Bantariza said the UPDF will follow a phased withdrawal.
“The military, the world over never jumps out; its withdrawal from operations is always phased out sector by sector,” he said.
Indeed, such a phased pull-out, considering the few days
remaining before the deadline, presents a logistical nightmare for UPDF,
which has to move personnel as well as heavy equipment, some under the
cover darkness, for security reasons.
Yet, with a peace agreement in place, the switch of position by
Kampala that its troops will stay runs counter to claims that UPDF’s
deployment in South Sudan has achieved its objectives — to stop
genocide, secure South Sudan’s key installations and the trade routes
between Uganda and Juba.
Just weeks after deployment, the leader of opposition in
parliament Wafula Oguttu took the government to task over the
involvement of the country’s army in a conflict outside Uganda’s borders
without parliamentary approval.
Mr Oguttu also demanded explanations about the source of funding
to maintain soldiers and equipment in the conflict, and argued that
this would come at a heavy price for Uganda through “senseless loss of
human life.”
Nearly two years on, the government has yet to give specifics of
how many UPDF soldiers have been killed in the conflict, although
officials agree that maintaining about 3,000 soldiers and equipment in
South Sudan is a huge cost to the struggling Uganda economy.
This argument is premised on the fact that Uganda’s economy has
fallen on hard times since the shooting started in Juba; the shilling
has depreciated nearly 30 per cent, as Uganda’s taxman was collecting
$30 million per month from Uganda’s trade activities with South Sudan.
Bank of Uganda 2012 data shows that by the time the conflict
broke out, remittances from South Sudan were worth $210 million — second
only to those from the UK; hence, it was in Uganda’s economic interests
to deploy in South Sudan.
In Kampala, critics also argue that the continued presence of
the UPDF in South Sudan and government officials’ change of goalposts
means there is more than meets the eye. There has not been any official
briefing on what UPDF has achieved in South Sudan, its exit strategy and
the losses inflicted on the army in terms of soldiers and equipment.
Pulling out would mean disclosing the numbers of soldiers killed
in a war that was not approved by parliament, and this would attract
public outrage, security analyst and the former Director of External
Security Organisation David Pulkol argues.
Hence, Uganda is buying time because even with a phased
withdrawal, it will not be possible to pull out all sectors of Uganda’s
troops, Mr Pulkol told The EastAfrican.
Although the main base of UPDF is near Juba Airport, there are troops trapped in places like Bor and Nisitu.
“Of course it makes sense that they don’t leave a vacuum, but
government is also buying time to negotiate passage for its troops.
That’s why president Museveni has been to Khartoum. The UPDF is besieged
in some places, making it difficult to withdraw even by air because
helicopter gunships can be brought down,” he said.
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