PHOTO | AFP British tourists arrive at the Moi International Airport in
Mombasa on May 16, 2014 on their way back home. About 500 British
tourists have been evacuated from Mombasa over security fears.
AFP
Suggestions of a foreign plot to topple
the government or of deliberate economic sabotage by Western governments
are absurd. Kenya faces many real challenges and can ill-afford to be
distracted by imaginary enemies and rumours of subversion.
The
basis of such a rumour is fundamentally flawed. Those claiming a plot
to unseat President Kenyatta argue that Western governments,
particularly the British, are alarmed by the influence of China in Kenya
today.
There
are many reasons to be extremely critical of Britain’s role in Kenya
during the colonial and post-colonial period. But organising a plot
against the current government is not one of them.
The
truth is very different from the rumours currently circulating. First,
Britain is actively seeking to be China’s major partner in western
Europe. The British hope London will become a yuan exchange hub.
Moreover, the British government are actively seeking Chinese investment
in Britain.
Engaging in competition with China over
influence in Kenya is hardly compatible with these much bigger goals of
British foreign policy.
Second, there is little direct
competition between British firms operating in Kenya and their Chinese
counterparts. British firms do not have the expertise or interest to
bid for the tenders for port construction, railway construction or road
expansion.
Third, British interests in Kenya are
boosted by Chinese investment. Among the major beneficiaries of
economic growth in Kenya will be British-owned or -listed companies and
their local subsidiaries.
Firms like Barclays, Standard
Chartered, Tullow and, through Safaricom, Vodafone all stand to gain
from any growth in the Kenyan economy fuelled by Chinese investment.
And it is these firms and their shareholders that exert the greatest
influence over British foreign policy.
Now I will turn
to the claim that Western governments are hostile to the Kenyatta
government. There is no doubt that relations between certain foreign
diplomats and the Jubilee Government are frosty. However, that does not
mean that plots are being hatched to topple Kenyatta.
On the contrary, the Jubilee Government is viewed favourably from overseas for many reasons.
Rightly
or wrongly, the British government sees Kenya’s continued commitment to
the war in Somalia as an invaluable part of Britain’s own battle
against terrorism. Moreover, the Kenyan Government’s pro-business
agenda is in line with British investment strategies.
Counter-terrorism
and business interests will always trump concerns about human rights,
the International Criminal Court or corruption when the priorities for
British foreign policy are being determined.
The
question that confronts Kenyans is not whether or not foreign plots are
being planned, but why intelligent people are making such incendiary
claims.
DESPARATE MEASURES
There
is a long history of governments using rumours of foreign plots as a
way of distracting Kenyans and of discrediting opponents.
Such
ridiculous claims of foreign subversion were a standard part of Moi’s
desperate attempts to stay in power despite widespread opposition from
1982 to his retirement.
One need only think of the
way in which the threat posed by Mwakenya was greatly exaggerated by the
Moi government in the 1980s as a way of silencing dissent.
One
can speculate about the reasons why supporters of the current
government may wish to follow Moi’s footsteps, but all are so obvious as
not to need reiteration here. But the Jubilee Government should be
confident, not paranoid.
For all its shortcomings, the
government’s position is strong. It is difficult to identify a credible
alternative to Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017 if we assume William Ruto remains
as his deputy.
The government is not confronted by a
powerful opposition. Although unified, Cord is in disarray. There is
little sign of any coherent opposition outside of formal politics
either; civil society has been silenced.
While there
may be discontent with the implementation or details of particular
policies and the performance of certain individuals, there is not any
great disagreement over the substance of policies.
All
the main political leaders subscribe to the current economic strategy,
support regional integration, back devolution of one sort or another,
and broadly agree on the basic tenets of security policy.
The
Jubilee’s powerful campaign message from 2013, its resources, election
strategy and the support of key institutions, such as the courts and the
police, mean the alliance will almost certainly win the next election
if it can remain intact.
The experience of Moi tells us
that tainting opponents as potential traitors, attempting to ban
political rallies and other such measures will be counterproductive.
Such
actions will eventually galvanise and unify a chaotic opposition. If
the government wants to counter discontent it should remove mediocre
public servants from office, confront corruption and deal effectively
with the security threat posed by Al- Shabaab.
Spreading
rumours of foreign plots won’t help the economy grow, stop terrorist
attacks or create jobs. The government should get on with the business
of governing.
Prof Branch teaches history and politics at Warwick University, UK D.P.Branch@warwick.ac.uk
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