Moscow’s new ideology: You buy it, we ship it

President Uhuru Kenyatta met with Russian Federation Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak on the sidelines of the 14th IAAF World Championships in Moscow.  

In Summary

• On the way, for instance, he had secured some deal on fertiliser, one of the main commodities that Russia exports to Africa. If negotiated to the end, it could dramatically lower prices of the commodity in the country.

A picture two weeks ago of a playful President Uhuru Kenyatta, alongside First Lady Margaret Kenyatta and Russian Minister for Sports Vitaly Mutko, captured a somewhat symbolic moment.

Taken inside Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium during the just-concluded IAAF World Championships, the picture did well to display the exuberance of the Kenyan leader, and not just because of the wins of his compatriots on the tracks, but also because of the prospect of better days between Moscow and Nairobi.

This is despite the fact that he was, to a large extent, in the city to cheer the Kenyan team on his way to China.

A number of other, more silent feats, however, had led to that joyful enthusiasm on the terraces. Away from the tracks, Uhuru had taken the opportunity to do a thing or two while in Moscow.

On the way, for instance, he had secured some deal on fertiliser, one of the main commodities that Russia exports to Africa. If negotiated to the end, it could dramatically lower prices of the commodity in the country.

Most promising

He also met some potential Russian investors for a chat on other opportunities that Kenya promises to offer on oil and gas, two resources recently discovered but yet to be exploited.

Uhuru also urged the potential investors to try other traditional Kenyan products, especially the agricultural type, noting that his country was still one of the most promising investment destinations in Africa.

Currently, most of the products that ‘The Bear’ sources from Africa are agricultural, including edible fruit and nuts, cocoa, and tobacco.

Uhuru, however, was not the first to extend a welcoming hand towards Moscow. In his sunset days as the President, Mwai Kibaki dispatched two delegations there to discuss trade between the two capitals.

Coming after the accession of Russia to the World Trade Organisation, it was an attempt to benefit from a country that had retained warm relations with most of Africa until it was dispatched to the cold following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Lately, Kenya, just like a number of other African countries, has been positioning itself strategically to seize opportunities in a renewed Russia as it seeks to grow its list of new trading partners away from the traditional Western countries.

And Moscow has been following the trend. Currently, Nairobi accounts for about four per cent of Russian imports from Africa and about two per cent of exports, according to a World Trade Atlas 2010 report.

Ahead of Uhuru’s visit was Yoweri Museveni in Kremlin, the official residence of the Russian president, in December last year. The meeting between the Ugandan leader and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, caused serious speculation in Kampala.

Some of the analysts thought it had something to do with arms — or oil, a commodity Kampala, like Nairobi, is yet to exploit. They were wrong, at least according to a statement released after the meeting.

“Vladimir Putin and the President of Uganda Yoweri Museveni discussed prospects for bilateral cooperation in energy, engineering, geological exploration, construction, finances and military supplies,” the Kremlin said. “Views were also exchanged on the situation in Africa.”

On his part, Museveni, just like other Africans, stepped back in time: “I am happy to be here because of the support that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic gave our freedom fighters,” he said, his words as good as voicing similar sentiments held by a number of other African countries that benefited from the continent’s close relationship with Moscow, especially during the Cold War era when each of the big powers applied all manner of tricks to attract support, especially from African leaders.

After over two decades in the cold, Moscow is finally stepping out on some sort of a charm offensive in what is seen as an attempt to bring Africa closer to its bosom again. This time round the freebies may not be available though; in fact, it is African resources and dollars that are targeted. It is a totally new start, in a new reality.
 
New entrants

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia scaled down its activities in Africa, effectively putting its relations with the continent on ice. That paved way for new entrants. In recent times, new players have offered Africa pitches. The Chinese, the Indians, the Malaysians and even the Turks have pitched tents on the continent, creating new business streams in a market hitherto largely ignored.

Europe, on the other hand, has been facing serious threats, with debts and resources failing to match. The Russian roulette junkies have not been spared either. Then there is the tacky issue of resource depletion at a time when Africa is said to be on the rise, thanks to recent oil and gas finds and a growing middle class that promises to be a great market. Add to that the delicate issue of power and things begin to get heady.

“Frankly, we were almost too late,” remarked the then president Dmitry Medvev in 2001. “We should have begun working with African partners earlier.” Earlier, in 2009, the leader, with a delegation of 300 businessmen, had undertaken a tour of Africa that went thought Nigeria, Namibia and Angola.

During its heyday, when the world was dominated by two main poles — the USSR and the US — Moscow yielded considerable influence over Africa. At the time, countries in the region were either in bed with Uncle Sam, or The Bear. Even those who claimed to be non-aligned would occasionally be caught in the political chess game, forcing them to compromise here and there.

Though a leading exporter of oil and arms around the world, Moscow’s resources are dwindling, notes Keir Giles, a British writer and academic. Then there is the growing competition from several other players who have over the years secured space on the big table. Here, China, Malaysia, Singapore and even Brazil come into the picture.
 
New direction

With an aging population and waning international influence, the Russians have had to go back to the drawing board for a new formula. Its new activities in Africa, including dinners with African leaders, suggest the direction of its relationship with the continent’s capitals.

Sometimes back in 2001, the then Russian Foreign Min­ister Igor Ivanov noted that “our country played the vanguard role in the de-col­onisation of Africa and helped several countries in their independence struggles. “Today’s African leaders remember that very well,” he added. That was a clear indication that the Federation was not going on with business as usual.

Trying to build on historical ties, Russia is on a re-energised mission for survival, with Africa as one of the key areas of its focus. Here, priorities are in prospecting, mining, oil, construction of power lines, nuclear plants, and railway lines.

Vladimir Shubin, in a recent report on Russia-Africa relations, argues that both Russia and Africa “need each other” in order to ensure the security and sovereignty of 60 per cent of the world’s natural resources, which lie in Russia and Africa combined.

To understand why his sentiments are that important, you need to look at the man’s CV. Vladimir Shubin is Principal Research Fellow of the Institute for African Studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences and Professor of African History and Politics at the Russian State University for the Humanities, and his areas of specialisation seem to be the defining principles of Moscow’s new push into Africa.

Recently, PM Dmitry Medvedev, while addressing a Russia-Africa parliamentary conference, defined the relations even better. “The influence of African countries in international affairs is growing, including, in a just and multipolar world order establishment, conflict resolution and food security,” he said.

“Russia is ready to continue developing our traditionally friendly relations with Africa. It is in our shared interests to activate as far as possible our trade and economic partnership and to find promising new areas of cooperation.”

These renewed efforts seem to be bearing fruits. Between 2002 and 2010, total Russian trade with Africa grew by 16 per cent, with imports and exports shooting by 19 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Leading in the race for Russian deals are countries like South Africa, Morocco and Egypt, three nations that share about 54 per cent of the Russian imports from the continent.

When it comes to exports to Russia, the leaders are Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, who account for 76 per cent of the African share of the cake, according to 2010 reports. Those figures could have changed slightly due to the effects of the Arab Spring up north.

Over the years, arms and oil greatly shaped relations between Russia and its trade partners. But, just like other key decisions, a lot has also changed in the way Kremlin deals with Africans on arms.

“The current Russian arms transfers to Africa should not be interpreted the same way as they occurred under the Soviet Union,” says David Shinn, former US ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso as quoted by the Guardian newspaper. “The Soviet Union provided huge quantities of arms to client states such as Ethiopia and Angola during the Cold War. It also provided a significant amount of military training to select African countries. The focus was to counter Western interests in Africa.”

That has changed slightly. “Military transfers and training by Russia are commercial deals as a way to make money. Ideology is not a significant factor,” Mr Shinn says

Similarly, Dmitri Bondarenko, deputy director of the African Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, says: “With African countries, the primary aim now for Russian business is to regain a competitive edge in the global arms trade, and what’s interesting today is that the approach is not ideological but very pragmatic; you pay, we ship. It’s simply business and nothing more.”

Africa seems to hold a great promise in this area of trade. According to Sipri, the independent resource on global security, the total world arms trade grew by -0.4 per cent. During this period, Africa bought 1.2 per cent more arms compared to the previous year, with North Africa stocking 7.8 per cent more.

International influence

Apart from being an important trade commodity, Russia’s arms trade with African countries are seen as part of a bigger effort to draw the continent closer in a bid to reinforce former international influence. For the Africans, the veto power that Russia holds at the United Nations Security Council is an arm they desperately need.

The Africa Development Bank, however, believes Russia’s renewed love affair with Africa is driven by resources. The absence of new discoveries and technological advancements, which are weakening Russian domestic energy, together with the lack of easy access to the remaining underground mineral deposits in Russia, are behind the federation’s new forays into the continent, AfDB says.

Reports indicate that some of Russia’s natural resources are almost depleted. For instance, around 2025, the country will have exhausted its oil reserves. This is also true for copper, gold and most of the other metals.

“Russian officials are endeavouring to keep a Russian presence in the forefront of African minds,” notes Keir Giles. To achieve this, Moscow plans to go the low-cost way, especially through bilateral talks and other carefully selected economic engagements. And everything is framed within an “ideology-free” diplomacy, which is a far cry from the Cold era.