Analysts, academics trash opinion poll

By Correspondent

Dar es Salaam residents closely follow yesterday's announcement of findings of recent research conducted by Twaweza on public views on the countdown to the October 25 General Election.

A cross-section of political analysts and academics said yesterday Twaweza’s opinion poll  giving CCM a comfortable lead ahead of the October 25 elections was propaganda meant to benefit the ruling party.

 

‘Let the people speak: Citizens’ views on political leadership’, a survey that was conducted in August and early September, and released yesterday by the NGO, found that more than 6 out of 10 citizens (62 per cent)  feel closest to CCM than to all other political parties. 

 

Also, when asked which candidates they will vote for in the election, more than 6 out of 10 respondents said they will vote for CCM candidates: President (66 per cent), Parliament (60 per cent) and Councillor (60 per cent).

 

Only 25 per cent would vote for Chadema and Ukawa candidate Edward Lowassa while ACT-Wazalendo’s Anna Mghwira would end up with one per cent of the vote cast, the finding show. According to Twaweza, the study interviewed 1,848 respondents from all regions of mainland Tanzania.

 

The report comes just a week after CCM national executive committee member January Makamba told journalists in Dar es Salaam that his party had contracted an independent researcher who conducted a study and found that CCM would clinch the victory with 69 per cent of the vote come October. He did not name the researcher, though. 

 

Reacting to Twaweza’s survey, observers questioned its credibility considering the timing and reality on the ground, based on their own experiences.

 

Danford Kitwana, a lecturer at Tumaini University said the findings do not correspond with the real political temperature on the ground.

 

If at all it can be taken seriously, then the only possible explanation is that the study purposely selected CCM members, he argued. But according to Twaweza, the respondents were selected using recognised scientific methods of probability sampling.

 

“This is a propaganda made specifically to prepare citizens psychologically so that they accept the result of the general elections be it fair or not” he said.

 

Prof Honest Ngowi of Mzumbe University took issue with the survey methodology used by Twaweza—phone calls—arguing that other research methods would have been employed too  to widen the scope of the study.

 

“My problem is that the findings are far from what we observe in the ongoing campaigns and actual feeling of voters we mingle with on the ground,” he said.

 

Agnes Gervas, a political analyst based in Dar es Salaam argued that the findings appear to be meticulously prepared with the view to make the public get used to the idea that CCM was going to win with the intention of discrediting complaints should people feel that the victory did not come through democratic means.

 

She also questioned why, unlike previous surveys,  Twaweza announced this one through live television broadcast, expressing worries that there could be interested parties in this particular survey apart from Twaweza.

 

But Dr Benson Bana of the University of Dar es Salaam warned opposition parties not to ignore the survey altogether but use it as a lesson to reposition themselves before the D-day—October 25.

 

Chadema Chairman Freeman Mbowe said that the party was not shocked by the study findings because the truth based on the reality on the ground was known to all who care to know.

 

“I urge Tanzanians not to respond to the so-called survey now; they should reserve their response until October 25 and come out with huge numbers and vote for their favourite candidates,” said Chadema presidential candidate Edward Lowassa while addressing a campaign rally in Masasi.

 

Contacted for comments, CCM ideology and publicity secretary Nape Nnauye promised to get back to this writer but did not do so by press time.