This year, China made a rare decision not to set a GDP target due to uncertainties from the impact of the pandemic.
By Huileng Tan, CNBC and Evelyn Cheng, CNBC
China
reported that the country's GDP grew by 3.2 percent in the second
quarter of this
year, compared to a year ago — beating analysts'
expectations and rebounding from the first quarter's contraction.
It comes as lockdowns to contain the coronavirus outbreak in China eased, and as Beijing rolled out stimulus measures to prop up its economy.
Economists polled by Reuters expected gross domestic product to have grown modestly at 2.5 percent in the April to June quarter.
China’s first quarter GDP
contracted by 6.8 percent in 2020 from a year ago as the world's second
largest economy took a huge hit from the coronavirus outbreak.
This was the country’s first GDP decline since at least 1992, when official quarterly records started.
China's
official GDP figures are tracked as an indicator of the health of the
world's second-largest economy, but many outside experts have long
expressed skepticism about the veracity of China's reports.
"Generally
speaking, the national economy overcame the adverse impact of the
epidemic in the first half gradually and demonstrated a momentum of
restorative growth and gradual recovery, further manifesting its
development resilience and vitality," said China's National Bureau of
Statistics in a press release on Thursday.
The Chinese government has introduced measures to boost the economy
including fiscal spending and cuts in lending rates and banks’ reserve
requirements — the amount of cash that lenders must hold in reserve.
Recent data out of China show some signs of recovery.
Trade numbers in June showed that China’s dollar-denominated exports and imports rose. Manufacturing activity in June also expanded compared to May, two different sets of surveys showed.
Chinese
exports have been getting "massive market share" while the rest of the
world was locked down, said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS
Lombard before the data release. China started easing lockdown measures
earlier than other countries.
Zhuang said
he expected China’s GDP recovery to be sustainable in the next two
quarters at least, as the domestic economy seems to be doing "fine" with
growth in infrastructure and cross-provincial travel reopened, he told
CNBC’s "Street Signs."
Zhuang said a recovery of about 5 percent in the next two quarters is "definitely foreseeable." China's full-year GDP growth was 6.1 percent in 2019.
Still,
there are headwinds ahead as the outbreak that first emerged late last
year in the Chinese city of Wuhan has spread globally, infecting more
than 13.5 million people worldwide and killing more than 582,000 people,
according to the latest data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
China's statistic bureau acknowledged the risks.
"Given
the continuous spread of the epidemic globally, the evolving huge
impact of the epidemic on the global economy and the noticeably mounting
external risks and challenges, the national economic recovery was still
under pressure," it said in the press release.
Data released on Thursday also showed weak consumption in China.
Retail
sales were down 1.8 percent in June from a year ago, bucking
expectations for a 0.3 percent uptick economists polled by Reuters had
predicted. Retail sales declined by 2.8 percent in May from a year ago.
Concerns over the job market and the lagged impact of bankruptcies continue to hang over the economy.
"We
are seeing an uneven recovery in China. Return to work, especially
factory production, seems to be doing relatively much better," said
Johanna Chua, head of Asia economics and strategy at Citigroup.
Looking
ahead, there is a question of how much China domestic demand can offset
the accumulation in inventory due to weak external demand, Chua told
CNBC's "Street Signs."
"We're still seeing a lot of concerns of a lack of virus suppression in the major markets," she added.
The
world economy is expected to fall into recession this year as many
governments globally have implemented lockdowns and limited business
activity and social gatherings. Slowing growth in global demand is
expected to hurt Chinese exports.
This year, China made a rare decision not to set a GDP target due to uncertainties from the impact of the pandemic.

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