Otiato Guguyu
Famers inspect a maize crop affected by the fall
Army-Worm at Jordan area, Njoro sub-county on May 16, 2019. (Kipsang
Joseph, Standard)
Small patches of farms dot the landscape in the Western Kenya maize
growing belt, with the rich green crop at different stages of maturity.
The planting is as erratic as the rain and each farmer makes the
decision to follow the first drops of
rain or wait for a few weeks to be
sure about its sustainability.
But as climate change becomes a reality, farmers are finding it more
difficult to make the timely decision on when to plant, and many are
making the wrong decisions in timing and seed varieties to use, and
yields are surrendered to fate.
However, a fair share of luck has seen the maize belt survive consistent
drought and analysts are now calling for studies to see how the region
manages to stay relatively food secure even as the country faces a
biting food crisis this year.
SEE ALSO :Aflatoxin dents Kenya’s food security
“Studies
have always suggested that the western side produces in small scale,
sells the maize and buy whenever there is a shortage. But somehow they
manage which could be because of the storage,” said Dennis Otieno, an
agricultural economist and research fellow at Tegemeo Institute of
Agricultural Policy and Development.
“They do not complain yet look at their family sizes. In Kakamega some
households have up to seven people. We need to study how Western
survives and replicate it in the Eastern region,” he said.
Dr otieno said Eastern areas are hit whenever production falls behind
and the belt is also affected by higher rates of aflatoxin than the
Western region.
The Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC) said this year production in the
eastern part of the country will be lower following the late onset of
rains and cessation of rains in May.
However, in the Western part of the country, crops are expected to recover following the longer spread of the rains.
SEE ALSO :State of the Nation: What those dying from hunger say about us
On aggregate, however, production is expected to be below average for the country.
And the effect is already telling with National Drought Management
Authority warning that the number of people facing a food crisis in
Kenya could reach two million in July, being the effects of a drought
that hit food production and caused prices to soar.
People needing food assistance will increase from 1.6 million in May.
“The food security situation has worsened. Of the 47 counties, the most
affected are Turkana, Marsabit, Baringo, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River and
Isiolo,” the authority said.
A report by EAGC’s Regional Agriculture Trading Intelligence Network
(Ratin) says the problem of a late start to the 2018/19 rainy season,
along with erratic and below average precipitation could potentially
delay the 2019 maize harvest in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya, warning
policy makers to prepare the region for possible shortages.
SEE ALSO :'No one has died due to hunger'
Kenya,
which had a maize output of 42 million bags last year, has said it will
import 12 million bags - almost double the previous year’s purchase -
to fill the gap which would be sufficient for the country.
Otieno, however, pointed out that even with supply available, Kenya’s
food security may just boil down to families’ ability to buy the food in
the first place.
“We have the alternatives of rice and wheat that should supplement maize
so sometimes it is not just that the food is not there, it could be
poverty. Maybe we need to question the government figure which claim we
have reduced poverty by up to 36 per cent,” he said.
The cost is further fueled by market intermediaries who take advantage
of the government’s bureaucratic blunders or influence by millers and
importers to make a killing.
Ratin said they had anticipated Kenya to start importing ahead of time
at the beginning of the year but the delay has opened up space for
speculation by the market, which subsequently spiked prices to a five
year high.
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“If
Kenya imports from the international market at the beginning of the
2019/20 marketing year materialise, the regional demand will ease as
Kenya has the highest per capita consumption in East Africa and is
estimated to have significant production shortfalls,” said EAGC.
“However, the process to procure the commodity is yet to begin.
Therefore, imports may come in later in the third quarter of the year
given the long turnaround time (about two months) required to procure
from the international market.”
Between April and May, wholesale maize prices in Kenya rose as much as 23 per cent amid expectations of a fall in supply.
“In Kenya, prices are expected to remain elevated and will trend near
the five-year average in the production markets of North Rift. In other
markets, prices are expected to be higher than last year’s levels,” said
the report.
Even with enough time and considerable warning, the government does not
seem to act strategically and bungles interventions that usually pave
way for corruption and cartels.
In his Budget speech, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich
acknowledged the risk posed by the delayed rains but critics say his
budgetary allocations failed to speak to the problem.
“While there are risks associated with delayed long rains which may
impact negatively on agriculture, we expect such risks to be offset by
continued strong performance in non-agricultural activities such as
tourism and construction,” he said.
Layla Liebetrau, Programme Coordinator at Route To Food, said the budget
allocations to food and agriculture remain low (at 2.9 per cent), and
declining (down from 3.5 per cent in 2016/2017).
Additionally, the policy orientation in favour of large-scale irrigation
is neither socially inclusive nor effective towards mitigating against
drought, because it does not make water available for smallholder
farmers to produce food.
“We cannot expect to be better equipped to address chronic,
drought-related food shortages, if we don’t change the way we’ve been
doing things in the past. The government needs to invest more in
decentralised irrigation schemes that target small farms,” Ms Liebetrau
said.
As stocks of maize declined seasonally, millers immediately started
complaining about the acute gain in prices in the production markets of
Eldoret, Kitale and Nakuru.
In Nairobi, a 19 per cent increase in prices was recorded with reports
indicating that supply from source markets in the North Rift was low. In
addition, imports from Uganda were lower compared to previous years.
“We highly doubt there are 21 million bags of maize in the country right
now. If that were the case, then we would be having this maize coming
to millers because of the competitive price we are offering,” an unnamed
miller told a local daily.
The government then turned to its Strategic Grain Reserve and cereals
board whose officials were last year implicated in a
multi-billion-shilling scandal that rocked the purchase of maize from
Kenyan farmers.
Irregular purchase
Then Agriculture Principal Secretary Richard Lesiyampe was charged
alongside former National Cereals and Produce Board Managing Director
Newton Terer and General Manager Cornel Kiprotich over irregular
purchase of maize amounting to Sh5.6 billion.
And it did not take long for a new scandal to blow open when Peter
Kuguru, the chairperson of the United Grain Millers Association, wrote a
letter claiming that members of a rival group, Grain Mill Owners
Association, who bought the State’s maize at Sh2,300 per bag against the
prevailing market price of Sh3,300, wanted to sell that grain at market
rate.
Agriculture PS Hamadi Boga stopped the release of the maize. Grain Mill
Owners Association then warned of a looming crisis, saying the ministry
was holding Sh1 billion of their money.
The millers said they did not have money to buy maize from the market
after being frozen out by the Strategic Grain Reserve. They now claim
they will run out of stock in a matter of days, spiking prices for
consumers while livestock farmers will also be hit hard by the expected
rise in the cost of animal feeds.
Even as the pockets of the country’s poorest are raided and the plates
of the vulnerable stay empty, the economy is also expected to take a
hit.
Central Bank Governor Patrick Njoroge warned the drought may curb this
year’s economic growth to 5.9 per cent compared with earlier forecasts
of 6.3 per cent.
Kenya's economy expanded in 2018 as good rains boosted the agriculture
sector, but a delayed start this year could knock as much as 0.4 per
cent off forecast growth, he said.
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