Frankline Sunday
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) last week released the
2019 edition of the Economic Survey with key indicators pointing to a
robust economic performance over the past year.
The report was received with mixed reactions with several economists
who spoke to The Standard casting doubts on some of the numbers put
forward by the statistics office to demonstrate the economy’s 6.3 per
cent economic growth.
The Financial Standard Fact Checker this week looks at why many
economists and business journalists who scrutinised the 300-page
document found this figure questionable.
The 6.3 per cent economic growth claimed by the Government rings hollow
in an economy that is largely informal and undocumented by the State
statistician and plagued with the largest youth unemployment rate in the
region.
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More
than 80 per cent of the country’s economy is in the informal sector —
considered precarious as the sector that does not often assure
permanence.
The Government has also failed to provide data on the micro and medium
enterprise (MSME) economic segment that accounts for the majority of
employment in the country.
It is thus unclear how much of this segment contributes to the economy
in terms of revenue and jobs without a nationwide survey that adequately
captures the millions of Kenyans earning their living directly or
indirectly, in the small kiosks, beauty salons and second-hand stands
across the country.
At the same time, a tough operating economic environment saw 18 firms
that had been profitable in 2017 plunge into losses last year with new
jobs created in the formal sector falling from 114,400 in 2017 to 78,400
last year.
Credit to the private sector has also been on a downward trend from a
high of 25 per cent more than ten years ago down to 4.9 per cent in 2017
and 1.9 per cent last year.
SEE ALSO :Demand for cement drops to four-year low
This
means fewer businesses had the capital to invest, expand and create
jobs. Given that this forms the bulk of official data sources on
economic performance and value addition, it is puzzling that a robust
6.3 per cent economic growth was recorded despite an ailing private
sector.
This raises fundamental questions about the type, range and distribution
of data that the statistics office draws from in determining how the
Kenyan economy grows and who is included in this growth.
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