Presidents Yoweri Museveni, Uhuru Kenyatta and Paul Kagame. Suddenly
they are meeting and making the right diplomatic noises but there is
still deep unease. TEA GRAPHIC | NMG
East Africa has seen a rare flurry of high-level shuttle
diplomacy over the past couple of weeks as presidents move to protect
their country’s strategic interests in the face of leadership changes
and simmering tensions.
But while some meet-and-greet
tours were expected following the installation of Ethiopia’s first
female President Sahle-Work Zewde last year and Felix Tshisekedi in the
Democratic Republic of Congo in January, threats to long-term interests
have left the presidents ill at ease.
That is with the
possible exception of Tanzanian President John Magufuli, who appears to
be on a watching brief, and Burundi’s Pierre Nkurunziza, who appears to
be increasingly isolated after he ran and won a controversial third
term in office in May 2015.
Over the past month alone,
Uganda President Yoweri Museveni has made state visits to Kenya whose
President, Uhuru Kenyatta, has been to Ethiopia, Eritrea, Rwanda, Uganda
and Namibia.
Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has been
to Tanzania, Morocco and Angola. President Tshisekedi has been to
Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda while President Zewde has been to Rwanda.
The
intentions of the visits are usually couched in diplospeak but at the
Africa CEO Forum held in Kigali this past week, three of the region’s
presidents who attended — Kagame, Tshisekedi and Zewde — proffered there
was more to the visits than bilateral relations and regional
integration.
The diplomatic tiff between Rwanda and Uganda, instability in
South Sudan and trade have been at the core of the shuttle diplomacy. On
the tiff between Kigali and Kampala, President Tshisekedi came close to
revealing what the mediation had achieved so far.
“I
have discussed with the two presidents but I will not go into detail.
What I can report is that there will be no escalation to war,” he said.
But
President Tshisekedi is not bringing just mediation to the table. He
seeks support from neighbouring countries against militia in his country
that he has vowed to disarm.
As has happened in the case of Rwanda, militia tend to regroup across the border of a sympathetic country.
President
Tshisekedi does not want the groups — which he describes as petty
business people — to find accommodation outside the country.
He
is also seeking regional assurances that they would buy electricity
from the country once the potential of River Congo is fully harnessed.
And that would put DRC in direct competition with Ethiopia for the
region’s bulk power market.
Back to the basics
President
Zewde said Ethiopia had decided to go back to basics in relations with
neighbouring countries, challenging all countries in the region to do
more for stability.
“We are seeking better relations with the north. That is what our peace deal with Eritrea signified,” said President Zewde.
Other
areas in which Ethiopia is seeking input from the region include
bringing stability to South Sudan and Somalia, expediting of
cross-border infrastructure such as interconnection of power systems and
support in its long-standing dispute with Egypt over Nile waters.
The
dispute between Rwanda and Uganda puts Kenya and DRC in a delicate
position as far as logistics are concerned. A long-term blockade would
make it difficult for goods imported through the Mombasa port to reach
Rwanda and eastern DRC, which Kenya is targeting together with Zambia to
reverse its falling trade in the region.
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