Are companies staying
private to avoid price discovery? Are they put off by the myopic nature
of public markets? Or have they become spoilt for choice? Six million
dollar questions. No easy
answers.
answers.
Even more questions:
Is it that privates don’t need much capital these days? Why are some
public companies repenting of their choices and returning to private
ownership? And has selling to larger firms become more preferable than
doing an Initial Public Offer (IPO)?
From my point of
view, all these trends are growing legs by the day and pose the biggest
threat to public markets. You know something big is happening when such
high profile public companies such as Kenol
are going private.
Something is not right when a ripe-for-IPO candidate such as
Seven Seas, which has already joined Kenya’s corporate elite and is
clearly among the most important private companies, still chooses to
remain private. What to do? Perhaps let’s try looking inward (public
markets) and see what we find.
One; public companies,
which are given a higher multiple at the time of IPO, often falter in
the aftermarket. Looking at the cohort of companies that have gone
public in the last five years and their current trading multiples, one
can see a very demonstrable story.
Clearly, the Nairobi
Securities Exchange (NSE) has not been a receptive market for IPOs in
the aftermarket. On the contrary, private equity (PE) funds, sitting on
mountains of capital, continue driving up private market valuations.
More
PE capital is now seeking a home than ever before. In their report,
“Turning Tides (Africa Attractiveness) October 2018,” Ernst & Young
ranked Kenya third as most attractive African market for private equity
funding. This means more PE funds are going to be holding money than
they know what to do with it.
Two, focus on short-term
gains is another big challenge. Increasingly, compensation plans in
listed firms are being tied to stock.
Consequently, more decision making and planning is being affected by more short-term oriented goals.
Compounding
matters is the never-dying investor demand for short-term gains. This
is a reason why most privates don’t need or want your money.
On
the contrary, strategic investors/PE funds are giving privates their
new-found ability to invest for the long haul and focus on the business
rather than on chasing short-term milestones.
Why take on the hassles of being publicly traded when private sources of capital can supply all of your needs.
Three,
cost of compliance is another headache. Half-to-quarterly earnings,
annual gatherings, listings costs and all that jazz is killing IPO
interest.
The result, many companies are choosing to
stay private longer than ever rather than look to monetise their equity
through an IPO.
In conclusion, why are founders, often
with the vast majority of their net worth tied up in illiquid stock,
choosing to stay private again? Well, the answer is not simple.
But
perhaps we may need to tweak a few things internally. Maybe we’ll
become attractive again or maybe not. But it does not hurt to try.
No comments:
Post a Comment