There
was a time in late 2015 and early 2016 - when Tanzania's President John
Magufuli had only just been elected - that the man they call 'The
Bulldozer' could do no wrong.
He fired
incompetent hospital directors. He scrapped expensive national day
celebrations. He staged surprise visits to government departments to
make sure everyone was working. He put a cap on official travel, and
vowed to eliminate corruption from his administration. It was heady
stuff, and not just for Tanzanians: all over Africa, long-suffering
citizens looked at their own moribund governments and wondered to
themselves, and then on social media: #WhatWouldMagufuliDo?
Overnight, Magufuli
bulldozed a reputation for himself as an efficient, no-nonsense
president who wasn't afraid to go hard on corruption; a leader the rest
of the continent would do well to emulate.
But as the months
wore on, it became clear that Magufuli was not quite the breath of fresh
air he promised to be - and that glowing reputation was not entirely
deserved. His administration soon slipped into familiar patterns of
patronage politics, while crackdowns on independent media and civil
society raised fears that Magufuli harboured a dangerous authoritarian
streak.
Is he serious, or are Magufuli's attacks on mining companies another clever political stunt?
As Nic Cheeseman,
professor of democracy and international development at the University
of Birmingham, observes on his blog: 'Tanzania's President John Magufuli
has begun his time in office with a set of high profile policies and a
blaze of publicity. The regional and international media has revelled in
images of Magufuli sweeping the streets and disciplining civil
servants, praising his efforts to reform a political system that has
failed to meet citizens' needs for many years. However, in the shadows
of these laudable activities the president has demonstrated a worrying
authoritarian inclination to repress dissent and reject institutional
checks and balances.'
Even Magufuli's much-lauded anti-corruption drive was not all it seemed to be.
'Stopping
corruption by sacking officials in an ad hoc manner and making decisions
on the spur of the moment may look dynamic and effective, but in
reality it exacerbates the problem,' says Cheeseman. 'At root,
corruption occurs because institutional checks and balances are not
sufficient to prevent individuals from abusing their positions. Dealing
with this by further undermining official processes ignores the heart of
the problem and actually leaves institutions more, not less, vulnerable
to manipulation.'
Where Magufuli is concerned, this should serve as a cautionary tale.
This year the
president has been in the continental headlines again. He is now earning
plaudits for taking on the big mining companies who, he says, have been
plundering Tanzania's wealth for decades. His administration has
slapped a massive fine on UK-based Acacia Mining, the biggest gold miner
in the country, for allegedly misreporting their gold exports. At
US$190 billion, the fine is one of the largest in corporate history.
Magufuli's actions may undermine regional initiatives to tackle exploitative industries
Officials at Dar es
Salaam airport also seized a diamond haul worth US$29.5 million, again
accusing the owners - London-listed Petra Diamonds - of undervaluing the
export. The diamonds will be nationalised, the government said.
At the same time,
Magufuli has pushed through new legislation to drastically reform
Tanzania's mining laws. He has put a ban on exporting unprocessed
mineral ores in an attempt to force companies to refine locally. He's
raised the royalty rate on gold, from 4% to 6%. He has written into law
that the government is automatically entitled to a 16% shareholding of
certain mining operations in Tanzania - without compensation.
These are
groundbreaking, near revolutionary policies designed to ensure that
Tanzania benefits more from its vast mineral wealth - and big mining is
running scared. As Reuters reported on Monday, mining companies are
battling to come to terms with the new regulations: 'Takeover bids and
exploration plans have been cancelled and workers laid off. The share
prices of many firms listed in Australia, Britain, South Africa and
Canada with interests in Tanzania have halved as the value of their
investments tumble.'
But before lauding
Magufuli for his visionary leadership, it is worth considering what
impact this is likely to have on the Tanzanian economy. It's all very
well to give big mining a bloody nose, but can Magufuli ensure that this
translates into better economic prospects at home? Or will his tough
stance come at the cost of a potentially devastating decline in foreign
investment?
Southern Africa
Resource Watch director Claude Kabemba told ISS Today there is no doubt
that Tanzania's mining industry needs a major overhaul. But he is
concerned that Magufuli's proposals are neither consistent nor
comprehensive, and may ultimately fail to deliver the systematic reform
necessary.
Will overhauling the mining industry translate into better economic prospects for Tanzanians?
'I think there is
too much instability in what Magufuli is doing,' he says. 'Although what
he is doing will appeal a lot to ordinary Tanzanians who have not
benefited enough from their mining industry, in the long term Magufuli
is running the risk of building an industry on the premise of
unpredictability. That is a serious problem both to the investors, and
for confidence in the country.'
Nelson Alusala, a
senior researcher at the ISS, raises another concern - that Magufuli's
actions may undermine or conflict with existing regional initiatives to
tackle exploitative industries. This is especially in the case of the
Regional Initiative against the Illegal Exploitation of Natural
Resources (RINR), organised under the banner of the International
Conference on the Great Lakes Region.
'If Magufuli does
not align his decisions with RINR, his efforts may be counterproductive
to the regional initiatives, in that investors may opt to purchase from
"polluted" sources (or blood minerals) that are easily available within
the Great Lakes Region. Similarly, the approach may promote smuggling of
minerals within Tanzania, as mining companies seek alternatives,' says
Alusala.
It is also worth
considering the president's motives. As his domestic popularity has
declined over the past year - from an extraordinary 96% in June 2016 to a
still-respectable 71% in June 2017 - Magufuli has been looking for ways
to reconnect with his base and to win over an increasingly sceptical
opposition.
In an excellent
analysis on African Arguments, Tanzania analyst Dan Paget explains, 'By
espousing the language of sovereignty and economic war, Magufuli is
tapping into political memories of liberation struggle and revolution.
While Magufuli is marking a break from his predecessors, he is still
invoking a romanticised idea of the past.'
In other words,
Magufuli is playing populist politics. 'The events of two weeks ago
amount to a radical overhaul of Tanzanian mining policy, but also a
masterclass in political manoeuvring. This is not to cast aspersions
about the sincerity of Magufuli's intentions to reform the mining
sector, but to illustrate that those reforms serve several purposes at
once,' says Paget.
But Magufuli's
track record means that we are perfectly entitled to question the
sincerity of his intentions. Magufuli has already flattered to deceive
once before. Is he serious this time, or are his attacks on mining
companies just another clever political stunt?
Simon Allison, ISS Consultant
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