Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairman Wafula Chebukati (right)
with vice chair Consolata Nkatha. FILE PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NMG
Summary
- In diplomatic cocktail circles today, you will find these questions being asked over and over again.
- You can choose to dismiss these bodies that have recently been rushing to court to sue the IEBC as a bunch of obstructionists.
- The limitations of expansionary spending is why we are beginning to see just too many contradictions.
Are we likely to see shifts in macro-economic policy after the elections?
And,
what is the likelihood that Kenya will be able to return to the growth
momentum of the early years of the administration of former president
Mwai Kibaki?
In diplomatic cocktail circles today, you will find these questions being asked over and over again.
In
my view, the most important thing that we should achieve before
thinking about likely shifts in economic policy is violence-free
elections. We must first graduate from the basket of nations that
experience widespread violence when facing elections.
Thankfully, we are going into an election with a Judiciary that widely enjoys a perception of independence and objectivity.
Even
though it is something we hardly acknowledge, a Judiciary with a
reputation of independence is a very big national asset in a country
like ours that does not have statesmen.
Very few of our institutions enjoy the image of
objectivity to enable them play honest broker in situations of intense
political conflict. In the build-up to the elections, we have seen
several civil society institutions — even political players — rushing
to the High Court to litigate on matters that shouldn’t have come up
had the Independent Electoral Commission (IEBC) been enjoying a solid
reputation of objectivity.
You can choose to dismiss these bodies that have recently been rushing to court to sue the IEBC as a bunch of obstructionists.
But
at the end of the day, it is a big statement about widespread anxieties
and doubts surrounding perceptions about IEBC’s objectivity and
independence.
In the coming weeks, the greatest
challenge before the management of IEBC will be how to constantly make
decisions that project independence and objectivity. Which takes me back
to the question I started with: in terms of macro-economic policy, what
are we likely to see after the elections? Frankly, it is difficult to
predict.
But in terms of general policy orientation, it
seems to me that there isn’t much that is different between the
competing parties.
From
the manifestos and what they say, both sides still believe that
economic growth happens when you collect more taxes and spend it in
‘flagship’ projects.
There will be minor differences on
how and when to spend the money. But there is near unanimity across the
divide that growth can only be achieved by spending more on
infrastructure.
Yet when you look at trends closely, it
is clear that after nearly 20 years of experimenting with expansionary
spending by both the administrations of Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta,
we have reached a point where we cannot continue taxing and spending
without compromising the stability of the macro economy. That is why
growth has stagnated in the last five years.
The limitations of expansionary spending is why we are beginning to see just too many contradictions.
Even
as leaders talk themselves hoarse about robust growth and green shoots
of recovery, tax collection by the Kenya Revenue Authority are on a
downward trend. Listed companies are reporting poor profits or issuing
profit warnings.
We have witnessed widespread financial
distress among leading supermarkets. Nakumatt, the largest, is facing a
barrage of creditors fighting to foreclose the company.
Even
as the government touts an exponential rise in the number of
electricity connections, statistics from audited accounts of Kenya
Power — the monopoly power distributor — show that this growth in
connections is not reflcted in consumption of electricity by either
households or industrialists.
And, statistics from
published accounts of commercial banks show widespread distress among
small banks. Worse, pick up of credit by the private sector is at a
historically low point.
Aggressive spending on infrastructure is not bad policy. But at some point, you must only spend the wealth produced.
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