Fireworks explode over Victoria harbour during new year celebrations in
Hong Kong on January 1, 2017. PHOTO | DALE DE LA REYPHOTO | AFP
At 8pm (Kenyan time) on January 20, Donald Trump will ascend the
steps of the American Congress on Capitol Hill to be sworn in as the
45th President of the United States of America.
It will
undoubtedly be one of the moments of 2017, the capstone on the stunning
events of 2016 that surprised political observers around the world. It
will also be a possible scene-setter for what to expect in the New Year.
“We
live in an age of uncertainty,” says Dr Bitange Ndemo, a lecturer on
entrepreneurship and research methods at the University of Nairobi’s
business school. “In fact, considering how 2016 went, with the shock
victories of Trump and the Brexit campaign to get Britain out of the
European Union, the best bet for 2017 is simply to expect the
unexpected.”
The year 2017 will be an election year for
Kenya, coming exactly a decade since the botched 2007 presidential
election which saw more than 1,000 Kenyans lose their lives amid an
outbreak of violence following the disputed election.
Just as in 2007, an incumbent will be seeking a second term in office against what might be a revitalised opposition ticket.
If
the opposition successfully rallies behind a single candidate, it will
set the stage for one of the most hotly contested elections in recent
Kenyan history.
“In the abstract, one would expect that an incumbent enjoying
state resources would have an easy ride to re-election and that the
election would be less competitive than the last one,” says Dr Tom Wolf,
a research analyst with pollster Ipsos.
“But the fact
that nearly a quarter of respondents in polls are either undecided or
wouldn’t answer the question as to who they will vote for suggests that
if the opposition is able to convince them to vote for them, this would
set the stage for a very competitive election.”
SECURE SECOND TERM
President
Uhuru Kenyatta will be seeking to avoid making history by being the
first Kenyan leader not to secure a second term in office when voters go
to the polls in the second week of August.
His main
opponent is yet to be revealed, with the key opposition figure, Raila
Odinga, planning to rally his troops behind a new outfit, the National Super Alliance
(Nasa), which he hopes will be the united opposition umbrella outfit
going into the election. The next election will be a pivotal one for Mr
Odinga, possibly the last in which the giant of Kenyan politics over the
last two decades will be a key player.
“Much will
depend on how the opposition organises itself and who they present as
their flag-bearer,” says Dr Joshua Kivuva of the University of Nairobi’s
political science department. “If they successfully unite and rally
behind one candidate and if the candidate is seen as ‘unusual’, then the
election will be very competitive. But if they don’t come together,
Jubilee will enjoy a walkover.”
A recent opinion poll by Ipsos found that many Kenyans’ hopes and expectations about 2017 revolve around the economy.
Responding
to the question “what are the main things you would like to achieve in
the coming year”, 20 per cent of respondents listed saving more money,
16 per cent said they hoped to get a job while 14 per cent expressed the
hope that they would be able to buy or build a house.
A
lot of those expectations may be dashed, however. History shows that
election years are bad for the economy, with output consistently
declining every time the polls come around.
According
to a paper by Prof Karuti Kanyinga of the Institute of Development
Studies at the University of Nairobi, agricultural productivity has
particularly been hard hit during election years.
COMPETITIVE ELECTIONS
The
sector, which employs the majority of Kenyans, shrank by about 3 per
cent annually between 1991 and 1993 during the country’s highly
contentious electioneering period when Kenya resumed having competitive
multi-party elections.
Things got worse in 2008
following the bloody unrest that accompanied the 2007 election, with
agriculture recording -4.98 per cent growth.
The wider
economy has also taken a beating in election years. Analysts say Kenya
may escape this historic problem, but much will depend on the way the
contest plays out particularly whether the opposition unites and the
conduct of the politicians.
“Typically, folks become
cautious and adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude (in election years),” says
analyst Aly-Khan Satchu. “But as long as the political rhetoric stays
below the radar, and I know that is a big ask, then we should be ok.”
While
a huge amount of attention will be paid to the presidential election,
commentators say greater focus should be dedicated to the 47
gubernatorial polls around the country.
With voters and
politicians having realised how powerful the position of a governor is,
and the huge resources they command, heated competition for those
positions is forecast.
The law which bars party-hopping
for candidates going into the primaries as members of a political party
has added an extra layer of complexity to the picture.
“If
that law is not changed, you can expect we will have the most chaotic,
most violent party nominations we have ever witnessed in Kenya,” says Dr
Kivuva.
Dr Kivuva said the light regulation of party
primaries, the absence of observers and the high stakes involved in
regions where capturing the nomination virtually guarantees election
would set the stage for extremely hotly contested duels.
Dr
Ndemo says the rising role of social media, which in the American
election seemed to supplant traditional media, will be an issue to watch
going into the 2017 election.
RESTRICT MIGRATION
“Rumours
sell better than the truth,” he says. “The problem is that in a context
like Kenya’s with deep ethnic divisions, these false stories on social
media have the potential of triggering violence.”
Dr
Ndemo called for the establishment of a team of “respected moderates”
that could be called upon in the event there was a breakdown in law and
order following the election.
The former PS in the
ministry of Information and Technology said a key thing to watch in 2017
will be the impact of external events such as the rise of right-wing
parties in both Europe and America.
He said the
adoption of policies that close borders, restrict the migration of
labour and students and possibly lead to the expulsion of thousands of
immigrants could spell a reduction in remittances and destroy the
capacity of traditional democratic beacons to lecture others about human
rights and democratisation.
He said it was essential for policymakers to prepare for such outcomes.
Away
from politics, 2017 is expected to witness a number of milestones,
including the expected commencement of operations for cargo and commuter
train services on the Mombasa-Nairobi standard gauge railway.
The
controversial early oil pilot scheme will also begin and a number of
conferences will be hosted in Nairobi, including an innovation
convention hosted by The Economist in February.
Corruption
will continue to feature in the news, with the Public Accounts
Committee expected to publish a hotly anticipated report into the NYS
scandal.
Nothing is likely to take the election off the
headlines, however, and, as ever in Kenya, whether it will be a
peaceful election or one marked by violence, whether the incumbents will
stroll to victory or face rejection and whether counties will witness
violent or peaceful contests for the position of Governor are all issues
that remain up in the air.
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