Money Markets
By PAUL REDFERN, LONDON CORRESPONDENT
In Summary
- East Africa is particularly at risk of being hit by a devastating outbreak of the Coffee Berry Borer -- a major pest originating in Congo but now spreading to the region as a result of climate change.
- A warming of 1–2°C, the minimum scientists expect for this century “will see the borer’s numbers explode,” new report says, spreading outwards from the Equator and upwards to higher altitudes.
East Africa’s coffee output is expected to rise in
the short term, but coffee farming may no longer be viable by the end of
the century as a result of rising temperatures and increased risk of
disease, a new report says.
The report produced by scientists from the Climate Institute
says East Africa is particularly at risk of being hit by a devastating
outbreak of the Coffee Berry Borer -- a major pest originating in Congo
but now spreading to the region as a result of climate change.
Titled ‘‘A Brewing Storm’’ , the report says the
pest has already caused crop damage in excess of $500 million annually
since 2001.
It was previously confined to crops below 1,500
metres above sea level but has spread up the slope, drawn by hotter,
wetter conditions in places like Tanzania and Uganda.
The report gives the example of Tanzania’s Mount
Kilimanjaro coffee belt where the borer is now found 300 metres higher
than where it was 100 years ago.
A warming of 1–2°C, the minimum scientists expect
for this century “will see the borer’s numbers explode,” the report
says, spreading outwards from the Equator and upwards to higher
altitudes.
While most coffee producing countries are expected
to lose half of the areas suitable for coffee production by 2050, it may
in the short-term favour highlands coffee growing areas of East Africa
as well as in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and the Andes, the report
says.
But before the century is out, conditions are set
to become inhospitable for Arabica coffee in the wild in East Africa —
its centre of origin.
The report says this is important because a 2012
paper by scientists at Kew’s Royal Botanic Gardens looked specifically
at wild Arabica coffee, suggesting that climate change could push it to
extinction by 2100. In the Congo basin, where Robusta coffee
originated, the wild plant may become locally extinct by 2050, the
report said.
“Neither wild Robusta nor Arabica seem capable of
weathering even middle-of-the-range climate change scenarios,” according
to the scientists, adding that wild coffee plants form a storehouse of
genetic resources that could prove vital in the development of new,
drought and disease-tolerant Arabica varieties at the very time when
coffee farmers need them most.
Coffee is a key global crop and the second most
valuable commodity exported by developing countries, whose global market
value stood around $19 billion in 2015.
Worldwide, around 2.25 billion cups of coffee are consumed everyday.
Over 120 million people in more than 70 countries rely on the coffee value chain for their livelihoods.
The worst affected region in the short to medium
term in East Africa is likely to be Ethiopia, the report says, as its
climate is projected to warm by as much as 3.1°C by 2060 and around 5°C
by 2090 under the most likely emissions scenarios produced by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.nvestors’ jitters relating to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit may
have prevented an even higher foreign investments inflow, Mr Kipchumba
said, adding that only a final resolution of the matter by Europeans and
a peaceful General Election would sustainably impact foreign portfolio
investment in Kenya in future.
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