Tanzania: A Peep Into the Opposition Camp's Future

By Peter Nyanje

Dar es Salaam — Nomination of Dr John Magufuli as its presidential candidate in July seemed to have solved a serious question over decision to axe the former Prime Minister, Edward Lowassa

. Given the Lowassa strength within the ruling party, many were waiting then to see how CCM can play its cards and drop Lowassa.

But, Lowassa's defection to the opposition, gave the camp new energy and it posed a serious threat to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) during campaigns.

Even after National Electoral Commission (NEC) declared Dr Magufuli as the presidential winner, many people banked on the past government history to belittle the newly elected leader. But what Dr Magufuli did or said after he was sworn in has started to make some pundits rethink their positions as far as future of the opposition is concerned.

In his few days at State House, Dr Magufuli has managed to 'steal' the opposition agenda. He has implemented, albeit at a very small level, some of main issues which were in the opposition agenda. So far Dr Magufuli has managed to show the nation that he is determined to fight grand corruption and overzealous amassing of wealth though dubious means.

Dr Magufuli has managed to put across a message that his would not be a government for non committal, unaccountable and lazy people. He gave directives which indicated that he will not entertain any kind of misappropriation of public resources. As we speak, several officials from Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) and Dar es Salaam Port are under investigation over massive loss of billions of shillings out of non taxation of imported goods.

This has made some people worry on the future of the opposition as Dr Magufuli is doing all the things which were strong points of the opposition. But a number of opposition politicians believe that what Dr Magufuli is doing would not derail their efforts to oust CCM.

Nevertheless, commentators say that in order for the opposition to remain relevant in contemporary politics, they need to change their approach and sometimes on the way they do their politics. Former Civic United Front (CUF) deputy secretary general (Mainland), Mr Julius Mtatiro and ACT-Wazalendo leader, Mr Zitto Kabwe, agreed in separate interviews that if it wants to survive what is emerging as Dr Magufuli's onslaught, they need to refocus on issues politics.

"If there is a political party which wants to die it should remain as event based party," stresses Mr Zitto.

The two young politicians say there is no doubt that Dr Magufuli has started with a bang and he is earning public support.

Mr Zitto says it is true that opposition has lost in this year's General Election but there is always a room to manoeuvre. Explaining, he says the opposition has lost in terms of its agendas, mainly war on corruption and unaccountability.

"We have seen and heard Dr Magufuli's seriousness in war against corruption something which the public did not see in the past from the government or CCM. It appears as if the government and the opposition have exchanged roles," says Mr Zitto in an interview from Masasi where he is conducting party empowerment tour.

Explaining, he points out that in the past it was opposition politicians who were vocal on corruption while CCM spent its time defending the government and its corrupt officials. But today, he notes, opposition voices on fighting corruption is not very much heard with the war now being headed by Dr Magufuli, who has turned out to be the government and the opposition at the same time.

Mr Zitto says this where the opposition should calculate what it should do in order to remain relevant to Tanzanians.

"A party which will entertain event based politics will not survive. Any political party which wants to remain relevant and strong should focus on issues," he says noting that opposition parties should stop emulating CCM on event based politics.

He says his party has no fear that what Dr Magufuli does would make CCM and be a force to reckon with in 2020 General Election. He noted that many people are tired of CCM and that should be the first strong point on which the opposition should operate.

"One thing which opposition could capitalise on is its increased presence in the Parliament. With a total of 112 Members of Parliament the opposition is strong not only to oppose, but to also block any government move which does not tally with public interests. With this number we can show the government what are its major problems," he says.

Mr Zitto says people might be overwhelmed by what Dr Magufuli is doing now because for long time they have been living with the problems which he tackling. Therefore, many people will be elated that at long last unnecessary challenges which they were experiencing are being addressed. For his party, Mr Mtatiro noted that there was no way Dr Magufuli performance would 'kill' the opposition. "In politics there are a lot of dynamics such that whatever the Head of the State is going to do will leave room for opposition to strive," he said.

Elaborating, Mr Mtatiro noted for instance that Dr Magufuli might be strict on corruption, but if he does not work in such a way that his fight of the vice does not translate into better lives for Tanzanians, many people would not value his crusade on corruption.

"Besides, people are used to these efforts by the government over corruption. But people want to see the government and Dr Magufuli focus on the big sharks and not waste their time with small people," he elaborates.

He says through Dr Magufuli would be seen as 'stealing' from the opposition agenda, the difference will be on how he implements the ideas. He noted for instance that while union of opposition parties under Collision of People Constitution (Ukawa) had promised free education to the level of university, CCM and Dr Magufuli promised to extend free education to the level of secondary education.

"Here, first you will see that there is difference on the two issues though they are all on free education. But, the main difference will be seen at the end of the implementation of the promise. Will he (Dr Magufuli) be able to improve the standard of education? This is the important thing which he must attain because giving free education will be meaningless without quality education," he explains.

On Dr Magufuli's move to cub unnecessary expenditure in the government, Mr Mtatiro said that is a wide area whose outcome would determine the performance of the government.

Generally, Mr Mtatiro noted, there are a lot of things which a President can do but there is no way that he might affect the opposition, he gave example of the former President Benjamin Mkapa noting that when he came into power in 1995 he did a lot of good things and with vigour. But that did not kill the opposition as witnessed in the 2000 General Election.

"If Dr Magufuli or any leader starts implementing opposition agenda, what the opposition is supposed to do is repositioning itself for future. And that can be best done by avoiding event based and sticking to issue based politics," he says noting that in repositioning the opposition might also update its policies if the need to do so arise.

He insisted that whereas events can be limited but the nation is not short of issues. The way the past leadership has failed to live to its promises, it has left behind a lot of issues for the reigning leadership to tackle.

Lowassa factor

But the coming of Lowassa in Chadema after being axed by CCM has changed many things. Chadema members and supporters have seen their beloved secretary general, Dr Willibrod Slaa go. But that is not the end of the story, though, how Chadema is going to transform still remain an issue of speculation.

Many thought that Lowassa would quit politics and resign to his Monduli home. But, he has indicated that defeat notwithstanding, his political work within the opposition is just begging.

Many pundits liken the Lowassa presence in Chadema to that of its former deputy secretary general, Zitto Kabwe, who managed to establish himself as an institution alongside Chadema. Lowassa is also so strong politically and this might create conflicts like the one we witnessed during the Zitto era in Chadema.

But, because Chadema leadership, especially its national chairman, seem to be comfortable with |Lowassa presence in the party, we might not see any anticipated fall out within the opposition party.

But, the same cannot be said about the policies. We have already seen that during the campaigns, Chadema avoided its major agenda - grand corruption - allegedly because its presidential candidate is also tainted with corruption scandal. To what extent would Lowassa press his influence in changing Chadema policies so as to suit his needs, has not been clearly seen.

But probably no one understood this better than its controversial sympathiser and the left-leaning Dr Azaveli Lwaitama, who described it as a capitalist oriented party that is using the very language of socialism inherent in the popular demand for free education and other basic social services, in the 2010 elections. In that year the Secretary General of Chadema, Wilbrod Slaa, was the 'prized candidate' of the main opposition party. Shrewdly, he also described his party as centre-right, albeit, using the philosophy of "people's power" to bring about change.

If Chadema has indeed lost its credibility among the conscientious electorate because of Lowassa, what will be the future of the opposition? Could this be the 'golden chance' for ACT to take over as the leading opposition party? Will it be able to do so without the money that seems to be relatively dry in its coffers? Is it living up to its promises, such as that of being transparent about its sources of finances? Can it speak out, boldly and transparently, against Lowassa whom it is also alleged to be connected to?

Dr Kitila Mkumbo, ACT-Wazalendo advisor, has the audacity of proclaiming, tactically, that the "basis for Lowassa's perception as a deceitful entity, however, has neither been established legally nor scientifically; it remains largely a political gimmick."

Additional reporting by Chambi Chachage