I have borrowed these same words for use
as the heading of this article, primarily because they appear to offer
the most accurate reflection of the general mood which was prevalent
among the people of Tanzania during the campaign period leading to
election day, 25th October, 2015. The
general political atmosphere in
the country during that particular period was filled with a mixture of
contrasting expectations, particularly in relation to the results of the
Presidential election candidates.
The first group consisted of those who
expected their preferred candidate to win the election. For them it was
expectations of joy and excitement. They were filled with excitement at
the prospect of their candidate winning these elections, and thus they
were happily waiting for the ‘day of reckoning’, namely election day,
just to confirm their great expectations.
The second group consisted of the
cautious elements, those who were either unable, or unwilling, to
predict the winner. Such people are usually described as ‘sitting on the
fence’. Their excitement would materialise later when the winner is
finally determined by the results of the election.
But there was a third group, consisting
of a significant number of others (whom we may call the ‘doubting Thomas
es’), who were totally apprehensive of what might happen when the
results of these elections are announced.
Their fears were based mainly on their
experiences of what had happened in similar circumstances in some other
countries such as Kenya, which had experienced big trouble immediately
after the announcement of their election results. For them, it was
largely a ‘fear of the unknown’.
They would simply say “you never know
what may happen” They were silently overburdened by feelings of fear and
apprehension; and perhaps even despondency. This is probably what
explains why there were so many calls and prayers for peaceful
elections. Briefly, that was ‘the mood of our nation’ during the just
ended historic elections period. There was a mixture of expectations of
excitement, and of apprehensions.
At last, the eagerly awaited ‘day of
reckoning’ has come and gone. Now that the voters of Tanzania have
spoken, and spoken very loudly; this is clearly an appropriate time to
reflect soberly on these matters. This article is an attempt to identify
the reasons which accounted for the co-existence of such contrasting
expectations. The reasons are probably many and varied, but in my humble
opinion, they include the following:- The caliber of the Presidential
candidates.
The high caliber of at least two of the
competing candidates was undoubtedly a major factor which determined the
amount of excitement which was generated during the campaign period.
Our own experience of previous
multiparty Presidential elections shows that where it promises to be a
hot contest, that is to say, where the contest is between candidates of
seemingly equal (or nearly equal) appeal to the majority of the
electorate; it has been normal practice for such contests to be
accompanied by diverse expectations, but mainly by feelings of
excitement.
That is how human nature normally
responds to such events. Reasons for the excitement in this year’s
Presidential elections. It is not disputed that this year’s Presidential
elections were by far the most exciting of all such previous elections.
This is because it was generally rated as a hot contest between two
‘giants’. The mass media (e.g. The Citizen on Saturday of 22nd August,
2015) had projected Hon. John Pombe Magufuli, and Hon. Edward Ngoyai
Lowassa; as “the top Presidential candidates”.
In other words, they were the ‘giants’
in this particular race. Remembering good old Shakespeare. William
Shakespeare, that famous English dramatist, wrote the following lines in
his Play titled Measure for Measure:- : “O, it is excellent to have a
giant’s strength, but it is tyrannous to use it like a giant” Thus in
the context of this year’s Presidential elections, Hon. Magufuli and
Hon. Lowassa were the two candidates who were perceived to be in
possession of what Shakespeare calls a ‘giant’s strength’.
This perception seems to have arisen
from the realisation that their respective electoral strengths were
derived from their long, uninterrupted association with Chama cha
Mapinduzi (CCM); as a result of each of them having been a prominent
leader of that political party for many consecutive years. It was
presumed that they both had their presumed strengths not only fully
developed within the environment of CCM, but also firmly anchored in
CCM.
This naturally raised the excitement of a
real (or hot) contest between these two ‘giants’ after one of them
defected to the Opposition camp. Further excitement was generated by the
fact that this time round, we had an entirely new team of Presidential
candidates to choose from, due to the fact that the incumbent President
Jakaya Kikwete was completing his maximum two –year terms allowed by the
country’s Constitution.
The excitement arose from the welcome
prospect of having to make a choice between two entirely new persons,
thus eliminating the encumbrance of certain mute considerations, such as
loyalty to the President who is seeking re-election. Such excitement
may well have been a sufficient motivation for a much larger turn out of
voters on election day, compared to the last general elections of 2010.
It may be remembered that the turn out
of voters for the 2010 elections was a dismal 42.8% of all the
registered voters; i.e. there were 20,137,303 registered voters, out of
whom only 8,626,414 actually voted.
Apart from other reasons of a personal
nature such as illness or other emergencies which might have prevented
some of the registered voters from going to their polling stations to
vote, it was also reported that because President Kikwete was seeking
re-election, some of the voters probably made the absurd decision that
the President was going to be re-elected anyway, even without their
votes, And that was their reason for staying away!
This is indeed absurd, but seems to be
confirmed by the turn out of voters for the 2005 elections (when there
was no incumbent President seeking re-election). On that occasion, the
voter turn out was a handsome 72.4%; i.e. out of 16,401,401 registered
voters, 11,875,927 actually voted.
Thus, it may indeed be true that the
prospect of electing a new person to the high office of President of the
United Republic is a kind of excitement which tends to attract larger
numbers of registered voters to the polling booths. Reasons for the
fears and apprehensions.
There may be several sources of fears
and apprehensions associated with this year’s general elections. In my
opinion, they include the following:- (i) Fear of the unknown. We have
alluded above to the two candidates who were perceived to have ‘a
giant’s strength’ in relation to winning this year’s Presidential
election; and to the fact that their respective strengths were firmly
anchored in CCM.
This association of their perceived
electoral strengths with CCM, is a very significant factor, for it has a
direct bearing on Hon. Edward Lowassa’s defection to CHADEMA and Ukawa.
There is a section in the Holy Bible which tells the story of Samson, a
character of extraordinary bodily strength, but whose magic strength
was rooted in the hair on his head.
When he was eventually persuaded to
reveal that secret to a woman called Delila whom he dearly loved, she
turned traitor and facilitated the shaving off of Samson’s magic hair
for the benefit of his enemies, who thereafter were able to overpower
him, as a result of his having lost his magic power which was totally
rooted in his lost hair.
The following question then arises: Is
it possible that Hon Lowassa’s defection from CCM, the source of his
perceived strength, would have the same effect of losing his electoral
strength, just like Samson of the Bible story, who lost his magic
strength when he lost the source of that strength, namely his hair?
Much of the fear and apprehension arose
from the inevitable question: If that happened and he lost the election,
how would he respond to such loss? This is the fear of the unknown.
(ii) Shakespeare’s warning of tyranny in using ‘a giant’s strength like a
giant’. We have referred above to the prevailing perception that that
both Edward Lowassa and John Magufuli had what Shakespeare called ‘the
strength of a giant’, together with his stern warning that ‘it is
tyrannous to use it like a giant’.
Another perception among sections of the
community was that one of the two ‘giants’ in the Presidential race
appeared to have an insatiable, unmitigated ambition of winning the
Presidency at any cost, come what may! The question which caused concern
was whether, in view of that abnormal ambition, in case he fails to
achieve that ambition, might he be tempted to use his presumed ‘giant’s
strength like a giant’, and cause a disturbance of the peace by creating
some unpredictable trouble?
Another “fear of the unknown”, namely, a
general fear of ‘what might happen unexpectedly’, even when, in fact,
there is no real or apparent threat to the existing peace and
tranquility. (iii) The sad precedents of post-election violence
elsewhere.
Another source for such fears and
apprehensions could be the sad precedents of post election violence
which has been experienced repeatedly in Zanzibar, especially the bloody
demonstrations which took place in Pemba on 27th January, 2001 in the
course of which a number of people were killed, including one policeman
who was on duty in the area of the route taken by the demonstrators.
But, realistically, that particular
event should now be treated as a closed chapter and something which is
most unlikely to happen again, for the cogent reason that the root cause
of the events related to post-election violence has now been
eliminated, namely the long lasting political rivalry and bitterness
between CUF and CCM in Zanzibar. But this has been happily resolved by
the creation of a government of national unity for Zanzibar.
Aprehensions at the parliamentary level.
A much more worrying scenario, and of much greater concern, is the
possible emergence of a parliament which creates obstacles in the normal
operations of the country’s good governance systems.
There are two types of such possibility.
One is what is described in parliamentary literature as a “hung
parliament”, namely a parliament which will constantly have difficulties
in making decisions, simply because there is no single political party
which has a majority of members in that august House.
The other possibility is where the
President faces an Opposition dominated Parliament, namely a situation
where the majority of members of Parliament belong to a party or
combination of parties which are in opposition to the President’s own
party. Both of these possibilities are potential areas of conflict,
which could easily give rise to instability in the process of the
country’s governance.
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