Delayed talks, military action: FDLR is here for the long run

An FDLR rebel stands surrounded by villagers in Miriki, eastern DR Congo. A combination of local, regional and international factors has ensured the group’s survival up to now and will continue to do so. PHOTO | FILE |  AFP

By F. GOLOOBA-MUTEBI

IN SUMMARY

• For now, the world and the region are stuck with the FDLR. Whether we shall see radical change any time soon will, to a large extent, depend on the extent to which certain actors are willing to change their attitude and conduct.
• There are numerous degrees of co-operation between elements of the FARDC and the FDLR.

Late in February, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo launched the much-anticipated military campaign against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).

In the DRC for the past 20 years, FDLR has not only wreaked havoc on the country and its civilian population but has also been at the centre of several violent conflicts.

Interestingly, the Congolese army — Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) —chose to mount the offensive alone, without support from the UN stabilisation force, Monusco, and its Tanzania- and South Africa-led Force Intervention Brigade, which had been expected to be part of the action.

As would be expected, the campaign kicked off amid much fanfare and media hype. A month later, however, little is heard of what is happening or has happened since the attacks on the FDLR began.

Truth be told, hardly a seasoned watcher of the DRC and the wider Great Lakes region expected anything to come of it. Indeed, many dismissed it right from the beginning as the usual posturing the DRC government and its military have engaged in for years each time they are pushed to “do something” about the FDLR.

The offensive was preceded by what one analyst termed “some kind of war” between the DRC government and Monusco over a number of issues, including the alleged criminal record of the two senior officers DRC President Joseph Kabila chose to command the military campaign, Gen Bruno Mandevu and Gen Fall Sibakwe.

The row and how the issue of indiscipline became so important caused some amusement. The two officers are hardly the only ones in the FARDC with questions of indiscipline hanging over their heads. Nor has indiscipline hitherto been an issue in as far as the UN and the FARDC working together is concerned.

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Which is why some analysts wonder if this was not yet another “excuse” for not acting decisively. Did the DRC government know in advance what reaction it would get if it appointed the two officers and still chose to do so in order to cause the standoff it did and keep Monusco out of the action?

Whatever happened, there is little reason so far to believe that the end of the FDLR has arrived. A combination of local, regional and international factors has ensured the group’s survival until now and will continue to do so.

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Local factors

There are numerous degrees of co-operation between elements of the FARDC and the FDLR.

For example, the trade in minerals, charcoal, and other merchandise and sharing of the proceeds. If this is true, then within the FARDC, officers have incentives for not fighting against or eliminating the FDLR.

A longstanding joke in the Kivu region and elsewhere in the neighbourhood has FARDC officers telling their FDLR contacts, “We are coming after you; get out,” before planned offensives are launched.