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Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Money Markets Forex reserves hit record Sh676bn on foreign bond reopening

The national foreign currency reserves rose to a record Sh676 billion ($7.515 billion). PHOTO | FILE 
By GEORGE NGIGI
In Summary
  • The shilling is trading at a three-year low to the dollar of Sh90.70 amidst sluggish market activity.

The national foreign currency reserves rose to a record Sh676 billion ($7.515 billion), following absorption of forex raised from re-opening the sovereign bond.
Central Bank of Kenya’s (CBK) latest weekly bulletin shows the official reserves shot up by Sh71 billion ($784 million) between Monday and Wednesday last week to reverse a two-month decline.
The increase is a net effect of borrowing Sh67.5 billion ($750 million) in November by the Treasury from the international markets through reopening (extra borrowing) of its sovereign bond listed on the Irish Securities Exchange. The cash was delivered on December 3, but is only shown as usable reserves when the government spends it. This means it is changed into Kenya shillings for payments in the local economy and the forex surrendered to the CBK.
The stock of foreign currency is equivalent to an import cover of 4.9 months, the largest cover the country has ever recorded. The shilling is, however, trading at a three-year low to the dollar of 90.70 units despite the ample cover amidst sluggish activity.
“The supply side of the dollar has had a lot of challenges, especially from insecurity, which has impacted tourism, and a decline in tea prices. On the other hand demand has not gone down with the current account deficit continuing to widen,” said Bank of Africa head of treasury Philip Wambua.
The stock pile is seen to have come at a good time as dealers expect the shilling to be under pressure in the medium term given low-dollar inflows from traditional sources amidst high demand by corporates.
“We have seen the shilling break the 90.50 levels which means it may test higher levels. There is demand trickling in from typical end of month obligations for telecoms and oil companies,” said a senior dealer with a commercial bank.
Adequate forex reserves are a buffer against weakening of the shilling as it assures traders of enough foreign currency to pay for imports. The shilling has depreciated 4.5 per cent against the greenback since the beginning of the year. The contraction has also come amidst general global appreciation of the dollar.
The Treasury has applied for a precautionary facility from International Monetary Fund to protect the shilling in case of external or internal shocks as witnessed in 2011.
CBK’s stock of foreign currency had shrunk by Sh55 billion ($617 million) in the three months from mid-September attributed to sale of dollars in the open market to prop the shilling and make foreign currency payments on behalf of the Treasury.

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