Plenty of lessons from Boko Haram attack which nearly broke Nigeria

A file photo taken on March 15, 2011 shows former military dictator and presidential candidate for the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), retired General Muhammadu Buhari speaking about the April elections in Lagos. Nigerian opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari was the target of the second bomb attack in the northern city of Kaduna on July 23, 2014 but escaped unhurt, an official said. PHOTO | PIUS UTOMI EKPEI | AFP 

In Summary

• The Wednesday before last, a suicide bomber rammed into the vehicle ferrying key opposition figure Muhammadu Buhari in the northern city of Kaduna, and detonated his bomb.
• Buhari unsuccessfully contested the last two elections and is planning to stand again next year.
• Al-Qaeda succeeded in Iraq by killing so many Shiites that the majority group was drawn into revenge and civil war.
• It is fair to criticise KDF for various aspects of their mission in Somalia, but they were right to ignore UN advice to enforce a ban on charcoal exports.

By MURITHI MUTIGA
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Nigeria missed a bullet 10 days ago – and we would all have known about it if the assassins had got their man............................................

 

The Wednesday before last, a suicide bomber rammed into the vehicle ferrying key opposition figure Muhammadu Buhari in the northern city of Kaduna, and detonated his bomb.

His accomplices then sprayed his vehicle with bullets. The retired general’s bodyguards repelled the attackers, and the opposition leader survived.

If he had not, it is fair to say Nigeria would be on fire now. The attackers caused a lot of damage; 15 people were killed in the blast targeting Gen Buhari and another 25 were left dead in a separate attack that aimed to kill a prominent moderate cleric, Dahiru Bauchi.

The murder of Buhari would almost certainly have triggered massive riots in northern Nigeria.

Buhari is the standard bearer of the Muslims in that region who feel that Gen Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan robbed them of their chance to rule and upset the Muslim-Christian rotation of the presidency that has sustained elite consensus in that country since the end of military rule in 1999.

Buhari unsuccessfully contested the last two elections and is planning to stand again next year. although in Nigeria it is virtually impossible to beat the ruling party.

Win or lose, Gen Buhari is seen as the channel through which the talakawa (poor youth) who form the support base of the opposition express their anger over their situation.

Which is where the terrorists who wanted to kill him come in. Because groups like Boko Haram and al-Shabaab know they do not enjoy sufficient support to totally destabilise countries on their own, they have chosen the path of setting communities against each other.

Al-Qaeda succeeded in Iraq by killing so many Shiites that the majority group was drawn into revenge and civil war.

These terror networks learn from one another. It would have been a morbid stroke of genius had Boko Haram, the main suspects in the bombing, killed Buhari because it would almost certainly have set off Christian-Muslim fighting on such a scale that, some in the Nigerian press have speculated, only a military coup would have been been able to restore order.

Kenyan authorities should learn from this and be aware that the Shabaab are capable of causing mischief that can upset the balance in a fragile state such as ours.

If I were in the intelligence services, I would double the security measures around the most important opposition figure in the country.

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In 2001, before the allied invasion of Afghanistan, the country produced 185 tonnes of opium.

By 2013, according to the United Nations, production had risen to dizzying heights, amounting to 5,500 tonnes a year.

All this occurred under the noses of American and British troops. Why did they turn a blind eye? Simple: poppy cultivation is a key source of income for many in Afghanistan and the allied forces fear that “more (anti-drug) raids will drive farmers with no other income to join extremists,” according to the Washington Post. 

CHARCOAL EXPORTS DEBATE

It is fair to criticise KDF for various aspects of their mission in Somalia, but they were right to ignore UN advice to enforce a ban on charcoal exports.

It is one of the few meaningful economic activities in Kismayu. Banning it would have turned many powerful local interests against the Kenyans and attracted more battlefield enemies than they needed.

I would not be surprised if the officers are “eating” with the charcoal tycoons, which is why I have criticised the seemingly open-ended nature of the deployment.

But these routine NGO reports about how KDF has allowed the charcoal trade to thrive are naive and should be ignored.

If the most powerful militaries can’t crack down on Afghan farmers who supply 95 per cent of the opium that makes heroin in the world, why should Kenyans risk their lives and court more enemies than just the Shabaab by banning the most valuable export southern Somalia sends to the Gulf?

It would be a bit like the GSU being sent to Kisii to combat the Sungu Sungu and banning banana growing, claiming that the proceeds go to finance the vigilantes.