Africa’s development on right track: AfDB

Chinese and Tanzanian businesspeople hold a meeting. Life satisfaction depends on how people are fulfilled in their plans and life in general. PHOTO | FILE 

By Donald Kaberuka

In Summary

• It is self-evident that if we are to make a dent on poverty on transformation in Africa what happens in those seven countries will be critical

Tunis. Nearly 50 per cent of all Africans live in seven countries, Nigeria and Ethiopia leading. It is self-evident that if we are to make a dent on poverty on transformation in Africa what happens in those seven countries will be critical.

At the dawn of the New Year we see a continent that, in most countries, has made substantial progress, from the economy to human development. Africa, of course, is 54 countries, a mosaic of endowments, demography, history and political economy. Not surprising therefore, performance will be variable.  But with the exception of a few countries experiencing political instability, the story is one of optimism.

Just look at the massive decline in the premature death of African children under five, and school enrolment, among others. Reversing the decline from the so called “lost decade” in the 1980s and years of Afro-pessimism; the 1990s. I am often asked whether the glass is half full or half empty. My answer is: my priority is to contribute in filling the glass.  Speaking at Brookings some time back and asked the same question, my view was that Africa has reached a turning point; it is not yet at the tipping point.

The journey remains long and arduous. From poverty, inequalities, weak institutions, unemployment, bouts of instability and bloodletting.

Everywhere, we are witness to the fact that strong economic growth is not translating into economic transformation, and too often, not sufficiently broad based or sustainable. That is where jobs are created as our countries join the higher ladders of the global value chains.

In the face of these challenges, one thing is very clear. While the continent has been able to reverse the past decline, while much of Africa is registering growth higher than population, five per cent is credible but not adequate to make a dent on poverty, many countries are still falling short of the critical 7 per cent required. So what is it that constitutes the obstacle to 7 per cent? What could be some of our key priorities to get there? I see three.

First. Peace and stability. Our Continent has made so much progress that we cannot afford a return to such events as we now see in South Sudan or in the CAR. Even though much of Africa is at peace, the spillover effects of the violence, the suffering of the millions in those countries, the impact on Africa’s perceived risk profile is quite damaging.  It is urgent we now build robust early warning mechanisms to proactively manage tensions before they turn into bloodletting such as the truly unacceptable violence we now see in South Sudan.

To which we must now add the new threat of jihadists and their many offshoots and variations from Al-Shabab to Boko Haram.

Second. Tackling the question of inclusion and inequalities. I do not believe there is anyone today in Africa who does not agree that a sea of poverty amidst plenty and opulence is a recipe for disaster. Lack of inclusion and inequality is not only a source of political and social tensions thereby undermining long term sustainability, but exclusion and inequalities means that an economy is operating below its full potential.  Africa is now second to Latin America in terms of inequalities as measured by different metrics. The most effective tool to promote inclusion and reduce inequality is to get children of poor people in good education thereby ensuring they do not inherit the poverty of their parents.

Third. This is about jobs. This is the Damocles sword hanging over every African country. While I do not agree with those who say the current phase of rapid growth in Africa is “jobless growth,” I fully concur that we need now to lay a special emphasis in those sectors that generate more jobs including and especially in agriculture, including from a more effective harnessing of natural resources to plough back into job creating sectors.  Africa will not create enough jobs at 5 per cent growth. Economies have to grow faster. Economies will have to grow faster especially in those sectors that create jobs. But this is the crux of the matter.

Whether you are a small vehicle repair garage owner in Kaduna, a small business Nairobi or a large industrialist in Addis Ababa, it is that unreliable power, overly expensive electricity, costly access to Internet, poor rail or port logistics, dilapidated transport systems that stands in your way to prosperity and job creation.   No country in the World has been able to transform fast until the infrastructure, at least the minimum required is in place.  Infrastructure remains a truly limiting factor to transformation and job creation. This is no brainer.

For a long time, infrastructure finance was largely dependent on external partners. In the last decade China has played a major role. Of late several countries are making important sorties into the capital markets. Domestic resource mobilization for that purpose is on the increase. Increasingly, where policy reforms have clarity and predictability, private investors are able to turn these obstacles into opportunities. That is how the deregulation in the 1990s led to the revolution in the telecom sector.