Climate change in EA: Food scarcity, diseases floods within 30 years

Using climate models, researchers predict a much drier East Africa in 30 years devastating its already fragile agriculture, which is the backbone of most of the region’s economies. A warmer climate could also result in the shrinking and even extinction of the coral reef off East Africa’s coast. TEA Graphic 

By JEFF OTIENO and CHRISTINE MUNGAI The EastAfrican

In Summary

• New projections on climate change by a group of scientists show that temperatures in East Africa are likely to increase by between 1.3 degrees and 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2050.
• East Africa will be much drier overall in the future, says the CGIAR consortium, particularly during the long rains season that runs from March to June.
• Agriculture economists now blame faltering food production on the changing climate patterns. The region is struggling to feed its 130 million population, and with the population expected to hit the 400 million mark by 2050, the five East African countries will continue have more mouths to feed every year.

East Africa’s climate is expected to change drastically in the next three decades, disrupting the region’s fragile agriculture sector, threatening livelihoods and potentially shifting the prevalence of diseases like malaria and cholera.

New projections on climate change by a group of scientists from the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) under its programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security show that temperatures in East Africa are likely to increase by between 1.3 degrees and 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2050.

The study brought in researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (Asareca).

The researchers developed climate models, that reveal the region is headed for difficult times as far as food production and overall economic growth is concerned.

The software models, which show both the best and worst case scenarios, show that rainfall will be more variable, either increasing, declining or remaining the same in different parts of the region.

Extreme conditions

The researchers used climate models developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their report titled East Africa and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis.

In a different projection, the World Meteorological Organisation in its latest assessment on climate change said that the earth experienced unprecedented climate extremes during the 2001-2010 decade, a situation that could worsen in the next 20 years.

In March, researchers at Oregon State University said global temperatures are warmer than at any time in at least 4,000 years, adding that the levels will rise further in the coming three decades.

According to researchers at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the earth’s average surface temperature has risen 0.7 degrees Celsius since humans accelerated emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases during the Industrial Revolution.

The extreme conditions are already manifesting themselves in the form of severe droughts, changing rainfall patterns and raging floods.

In 2002, severe flooding occurred in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda, with some locations recording their wettest conditions since 1961.

In 2005, the drought hit the region and parts of Central Africa. In 2006, things changed yet again, with most parts of the continent recording wetter-than-normal conditions.

In 2010, dry conditions developed during the later months in parts of East Africa, particularly in equatorial regions of Kenya and Tanzania.

Agriculture economists now blame faltering food production on the changing climate patterns. The region is struggling to feed its 130 million population, and with the population expected to hit the 400 million mark by 2050, the five East African countries will continue have more mouths to feed every year.