Will oil stem escalation of Congo conflict to regional dimensions?

Frank Kagabo  

By Frank Kagabo

In Summary

• Congo’s timber resources were a major component in prolonging the war in the ’90s and early 2000s; oil exploration and discovery in neighbouring countries is enough distraction now.
• The refocusing of priorities certainly means there will be little incentive for regional powers to intervene in DRC and, if they do, it is unlikely that they will ever occupy Congo for long periods again.

After a short period of uneasy calm in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), there has been another spurt of violence and some observers think the conflict is going to have far-reaching regional implications with several states intervening.

The presence of Monusco — just like that of its predecessor Monuc — for over a decade has had limited impact in bringing stability to DRC.

This UN mission has been roundly condemned from many quarters in the region and beyond.

Only over a week ago, bombs landed in Rwanda’s western district of Rubavu and the Rwandan military and government responded with harsh words that did little to calm fears of the conflict escalating to a real regional war.

Whether those were stray shells or a deliberate act of aggression remains to be seen but, yet again, with a multiplicity of protagonists, no one is sure who could have fired the missiles.

The army spokesman, Brig-Gen Joseph Nzabamwita, promptly stated that Rwanda would respond to future provocation.

In Ituri, two of Uganda’s long-time rebel movements, ADF an NALU, seem to have taken advantage of the lawlessness in eastern Congo to regroup. With alleged support from international Islamists, the rebels are said to be on the offensive, capturing small trading outposts.

Uganda’s reaction to the recurring threat however seems to be less bellicose than Rwanda’s, with some quarters even entertaining the possibility of talking to the armed dissidents though maintaining their resolve to fight them.

Despite indications of a possibility of escalation of fighting, however, that is unlikely.

Recently, the BBC reported about a research that indicates a significant reduction in the deforestation of the Congo basin. The report said that in the nineties it was estimated that more than 3,000 square kilometres of the rainforest was being lost every year but that had reduced to below 2,000km sq.

That was attributed to change in priorities in East and Central Africa. Regional countries, said the researchers, are now concentrating on mining and oil production.

Apparently, for this reason, especially oil, the foreign dimension to Congo’s conflicts is unlikely to increase.

Instructively, deforestation was at its peak during the war that sucked in many countries. Again, inherently, Congo is not known for internal strife without foreign involvement.

Save for the east and the Garamba area where the LRA have sought sanctuary, most parts of Congo can be said to be relatively out of major conflict.

In the east, the complication partly emanates from neighbouring countries that have shifted their internal conflicts onto Congolese soil thanks to the absence of an effective state