Foreign support Uhuru’s biggest hurdle

Mr Uhuru Kenyatta (back) and Mr Francis Muthaura attend a hearing at the ICC in the past. Mr Kenyatta has denied the charges. AFP 

By George Omondi

Posted  Monday, March 11  2013 at  20:11

In Summary

• Mr Kenyatta needs working relations with the international community to guarantee the release of billions of shillings pledged to finance the 2012/2013 budget.
• Failure to honour pledges factored in the Sh1.15 trillion budget would widen the deficit, initially capped at Sh279 billion.

Uhuru Kenyatta faces the tough task of rallying the international community to support his development programmes as he juggles State duties with appearances at the Hague to answer crimes against humanity charges.

Mr Kenyatta needs working relations with the international community to guarantee the release of billions of shillings pledged to finance the 2012/2013 budget, safeguard export markets, and attract increased inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI).

But with criminal charges pending at The Hague against him and designated deputy president William Ruto, analysts see a bumpy road ahead.

“If Kenyatta and Ruto cling to power rather than go to trial, Kenya will be plunged into an international diplomatic crisis which will ultimately lead to the country’s international isolation,” UK-based Damina Advisors, frontier markets specialists, said in a market report released last week.

In case of EU and US pullback, the shilling would weaken as Kenya experiences a significant slash in foreign aid, loans from multilateral development financiers, and foreign exchange receipts, the report said.

Both Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have denied the ICC charges and pledged to continue cooperating with the court even after taking over power.

“To nations of the world, I give you my word that Kenya will continue to be part of the international community. We will continue to respect our international obligations,” Mr Kenyatta said in his acceptance speech on Saturday.

He added: “But the international community must also respect our independence and sovereignty.” Experts however said that the West’s reaction to Kenya’s election will depend on how individual countries value Kenya’s geographical location, at the gateway to regional markets, and its partnership in the war against international terrorism.

“The decision that the West takes will most likely depend on prevailing international interest and Uhuru’s own foreign policy statement,” said Mr Macharia Munene, a professor of History and International Relations at the United States International University, Nairobi.

“We expect Mr Kenyatta to extend the olive branch to all foreign governments immediately after taking office, but the actual relationship will depend on how each responds to his overtures,” Prof Macharia said.

Kenya needs foreign partnerships to further its development programme. Half-year data released by the Office of Controller of Budget shows that by December, the international community had released only Sh26.6 billion or 11.8 per cent of Sh226 billion pledged to support the 2012/2013 budget.

Failure to honour pledges factored in the Sh1.15 trillion budget would widen the deficit, initially capped at Sh279 billion, and push up interest rates as the government resorts to domestic borrowing.

The government has already fallen below its revenue collection target with a total collection of Sh360.3 billion in the first half of 2012/13 against a target of Sh404.3 billion (see article).

France and the UK are widely quoted by the press as having made veiled threats of diplomatic isolation. The US, however, has reassure Kenyans of its continued support.

“Since its independence in 1963, Kenya has been one of America’s strongest and most enduring partners in Africa. We stand with you at this historic moment and will continue to be a strong friend and ally of the Kenyan people,” US Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement released on Saturday.