Shortly before 3pm on Thursday, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry
Rotich will leave his 14th floor office at
the Treasury, take a reserved lift together with a retinue of aides for the short walk to Parliament buildings. There he will pose for the media and display the briefcase that contains his proposals to fund the ambitious Sh3 trillion budget for 2018/9 fiscal year.
the Treasury, take a reserved lift together with a retinue of aides for the short walk to Parliament buildings. There he will pose for the media and display the briefcase that contains his proposals to fund the ambitious Sh3 trillion budget for 2018/9 fiscal year.
That
is as far as the niceties will go, at least for consumers and high
income earners who are expected to shoulder the heaviest burden of a
programme aimed at accelerating economic growth after the
election-induced stagnation of last year.
The
CS has largely played his hand on the VAT law through the Tax Laws
(Amendment) Bill, 2018, that is before Parliament, and on income tax
regime through the draft Income Tax Bill that could be tabled in
Parliament together with the Finance Bill today.
COMMON GROUND
This,
experts say, does not foreclose surprises on the excise tax front,
perhaps the reason why Keroche Breweries and East Africa Breweries found
rare common ground in urging restraint on taxation of alcoholic drinks.
The
proposed changes to the VAT law are going to hit consumers the hardest.
A raft of basic commodities are being moved from VAT zero-rated to
exempt status, effectively increasing the cost of items because
manufacturers cannot recoup the consumption tax paid on raw materials.
This means the cost will be passed on to consumers. In this category
will fall basic items like flour, bread, milk, farm pesticides and
cooking gas.
Others include vaccines for humans and
animals, raw materials for pharmaceutical manufacturers and supplies to
marine fisheries and fish processors. Households, farms and patients
will bear the pinch.
TAX REFORMS
Deloitte
tax leader for East Africa Fred Omondi said Mr Rotich could even choose
to immediately bring on board some of the VAT changes that have been in
the pipeline for some time — such as the levy on petroleum products.
High
income earners and small enterprises are also targeted in the tax
reforms. Mr Rotich has proposed a top tax rate of 35 per cent on all
income above Sh9 million per year, or Sh750,000 per month.
Small
businesses will be charged a presumptive tax of 15 per cent of the
single business permit fee issued by a county government, replacing the
turnover tax of three per cent that was charged on revenue below Sh5
million.
Experts say Mr Rotich can
spring a surprise on Kenyans today, most likely by adjusting excise tax
for inflation as allowed by the law. Although the excise (sin) tax has
traditionally hit consumers of alcoholic beverages and smokers, the
government has been making efforts to bring products like soft drinks,
cosmetics, juice and bottled water under its net.
PUBLIC DEBT
The
gazette notice that introduced the duty on these products was quashed
by the High Court in March, but the government later appealed the
decision.
Mr Rotich presents the
budget before Parliament today, showing an increase in expenditure from
last year’s Sh2.62 trillion amid concerns that the rising budget deficit
is pushing the country’s public debt to an unsustainable level.
“The
CS is unlikely to deviate much from the proposals he has already laid
out in the Tax Amendment Bill and the draft Income Tax Bill, but he has
the opportunity to adjust excise for inflation this year,” said
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) partner and head of tax in Kenya and East
markets Stephen Okello.
Mr Okello
said that instead of raising income tax rates, the Treasury ought to
instead raise the VAT rate to 18 per cent while reducing income tax,
which would leave more money in people’s pockets and boost the economy
though increased spending.
FINISHED PRODUCTS
One
way Mr Rotich can address the budget deficit without raiding the
pockets of workers is by bringing more people under the tax net and
focusing more on consumption taxes.
Mr
Okello said the slashing of the budget allocated to KRA by Sh828
million could undermine administrative reforms that would help achieve
this.
Mr Omondi said that import duty is another area that is likely to be targeted by Treasury for a tax increase.
“We
are likely to see an increase of import duty on some finished products
in the effort to promote local manufacturing which is one of the areas
of focus for the government,” he said.
Pharmaceuticals
have already warned that the cost of drugs will rise if the government
implements a proposed import duty of 25 per cent on medicine.
That's
bad news for household budgets, which have also been bit by a higher
cost of energy and transport due to the rise in price of oil.
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