Kenya's democracy and economy are both
exhibiting strength and resilience despite the disruptions and dangers
arising from the current electoral process, speakers at a Washington
forum have said.
“We have seen
positive movement in Kenya's democratic progression over the last decade
and a half,” declared Johnnie Carson, a retired US ambassador to Kenya
who also held the top Africa post at the State Department during the
first Obama administration.
REFORMS
He
cited a series of reforms, including adoption of the 2010 Constitution,
devolution of political decision-making and diminution of presidential
power, a “decrease in electoral violence,” a growing willingness to take
electoral disputes to court and “the emergence of a more independent
and courageous judiciary.”
Mr Carson and the six other panellists taking part in a half-day “Spotlight on Kenya”
conference at a Washington think tank also acknowledged that ongoing
electoral uncertainties pose risks of political and economic
destabilisation.
But Mr Carson offered reassurance that “democracy is messy, and Kenya's is no exception.”
Dr
Korir Sing’Oei, legal adviser to Deputy President William Ruto, sounded
some of the few discordant notes at an event characterised by polite
consensus.
RAILA
His critical comments aimed at Raila Odinga contrasted with Mr Carson's favourable remarks about the Nasa leader.
Mr
Carson quoted Mr Odinga as having said in regard to the electoral
process, “You can't do the same thing the same way and expect different
results.” The former envoy added, “You know something? He's right.”
Dr Sing'Oei accused Mr Odinga of irresponsible behaviour.
“The
uncritical adulation of opposition leader Raila Odinga by the
international community has made his conduct to lack any sense of
proportionality,” Dr Sing'Oei said.
He
also criticised the Supreme Court ruling nullifying the August 8
election, saying it sets “a very worrying standard because democracy is
essentially about the vote.”
JUDICIARY
The
court had acted on the basis of a technological failure in transmission
of results while not rejecting the actual outcome recorded at polling
stations, Dr Sing'Oei noted.
“What this ruling has done is to make it almost impossible to deliver a credible election,” he warned.
“It
is indeed feasible that there is the potential for endless petitions,”
causing “chaos, confusion, anarchy,” Dr Sing'Oei said.
“At what point do we say enough is enough?”
John
Tomaszewski, Africa director for the International Republican
Institute, suggested that a ruling focused on an election process rather
than on voting results themselves could have ramifications throughout
Africa.
MEDIA
Mr
Tomaszewski, whose organisation seeks to promote democratic norms
outside the US, offered a negative appraisal of Kenyan media's coverage
of the August 8 voting.
“The media has to answer some questions,” he said, pointing to self-censorship prompted by pressures from political powers.
“There
is a need to have a brave media. There's no excuse for voluntary
blackouts of things that are going on,” Mr Tomaszewski said in reference
to disturbances that took place after the election which, he said, were
reported and discussed on social media but not by the mainstream media
houses.
“The media need to do a better job of digging deep and not just reporting information it's been fed,” he advised.
OBSERVERS
The
performance of international election observers also came in for
scrutiny at the conference, which was organised by the Centre for
Strategic and International Studies, a leading Washington think tank.
Lauren Ploch Blanchard, an Africa specialist at the US Congressional Research Service, defended observers' work.
Contrary
to some media reports, none of the major observer delegations had
actually declared the August 8 election “free and fair,” she said.
Monitors may not have spoken with sufficient clarity, she added.
“A
lot of soul-searching is going on in the international election
observer community on how to do better,” Ms Ploch Blanchard said.
World Bank economist Kevin Carey offered a generally positive appraisal of Kenya's economic record in recent years.
ECONOMY
He described “an incredibly resilient economy” that performs well because it is broadly diversified.
But Mr Carey also warned of two major challenges that will face whoever becomes president.
He
pointed to the urgent need for “fiscal consolidation,” saying that the
budget deficit is now an “extremely high number” of eight percent of
GDP.
“This cannot go on forever,” Mr Carey cautioned.
The
government may have reached a limit on raising revenues as a means of
reducing the deficit and may now have to implement spending cuts, he
suggested.
Interest rate caps act as a drag on the economy, he added.
INEQUALITY
Putting
such limits in place “curtails the ability to charge interest rates
they might need to compensate for risks,” Mr Carey said in reference to
Kenyan lending institutions.
Lifting the caps, however, “won't be easy for the incoming government,” he predicted.
A conference panel focused on the economy also addressed discrepancies between economic growth and local development in Kenya.
Speakers
cited sharp regional contrasts between Nairobi, the Rift Valley and
Mombasa on one hand and virtually the entire rest of the country on the
other.
Mr Carey also called attention to the unresolved food crisis affecting millions of Kenyans.
He
further noted that an estimated one-third of the country's population
lives today in absolute poverty, defined by the World Bank as amounting
to less than a $1.90 daily income.
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